TD Securities, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019daki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n fiyatlara yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir risk primi yerle\u015ftirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle emtia i\u015flem dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n (CTA\u2019lar) WTI ham petrol, Brent ham petrol, dizel ve benzinde azami uzun pozisyonda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131ndaki hasar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan arz endi\u015feleri artarken, raporlar sistemin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinin \u00fc\u00e7 ila be\u015f hafta boyunca devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; ilave Hus\u00ee sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ihtimali de bir ba\u015fka aksama risk katman\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka ayr\u0131ca, dizel dengesini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran bir unsur olarak Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde daha dengeli seyretmi\u015fti; buna g\u00f6re, daha geni\u015f Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, Umman K\u00f6rfezi, Umman, F\u00fcceyre, Yanbu dahil rota ve hub\u2019larda sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi toplamlar\u0131n %80\u2013%90\u2019\u0131 band\u0131nda ilerlerken, rafineri \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma oranlar\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen risk primi kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu; bu durum, ilave arz k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya \u00c7in talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle rafineri throughput\u2019unun yeniden toparlanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek teyakkuzda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira Emtia \u0130\u015flem Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 (CTA\u2019lar) WTI, Brent ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde azami uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131 ile Rus rafinerilerini vuran \u00f6nemli arz kesintileri piyasadaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklemeye devam ediyor. Ancak algoritmik fonlar h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda tamamen pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fundan, bundan sonraki olas\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeni spek\u00fclatif al\u0131mlardan ziyade fiziksel arz darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki kesintilere \u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin son y\u0131llarda Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik ve toplam i\u015fleme kapasitesinin %14\u2019\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakan \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na\u2014 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n dizel crack spread\u2019lerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar tetikleyebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eu anda Suudi Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ila be\u015f hafta boyunca kayda de\u011fer ham petrol hacimlerinin piyasaya ula\u015famamas\u0131 riskini do\u011furuyor. Bunun, k\u00fcresel stok tamponlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz; zira kilit ticaret hub\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda stoklar zaten s\u0131k\u0131 seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, ani k\u00e2r realizasyonu riskine kar\u015f\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Volatilite seviyeleri \u015fu an CTA al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki temel k\u0131s\u0131t oldu\u011fundan, ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da do\u011frudan uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirebilir. Ekim\u2019de boru hatt\u0131 onar\u0131mlar\u0131 tamamlanmadan \u00f6nce beklenen yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Brent veya dizelde takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spread) uygulamak da yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel rafineri talebini de izlemeliyiz; Asya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerinden ithalat i\u015ftah\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak ani bir toparlanma, bu arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131yla derhal \u00e7ak\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Suudi boru hatt\u0131 onar\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edilen be\u015f haftal\u0131k pencerenin \u00f6tesine sarkmas\u0131 halinde, ham petrol g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin kolayl\u0131kla \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin beklenmedik \u015fekilde gev\u015femesi durumunda piyasan\u0131n algoritmik kaynakl\u0131 sert ters hareketlere son derece a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss disiplini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re CTA\u2019lar WTI, Brent, dizel ve benzinde azami long. Suudi Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 hatt\u0131 3-5 hafta devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalabilir; Rus rafineri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 risk primini besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t