Fed Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde EUR\/USD \u0130\u015flem Dinamikleri<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin bug\u00fcn, 14 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da 1,1525 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) ise yar\u0131nki kritik Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 99,66\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n, A\u011fustos\u2019ta T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %86 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Tarihsel olarak, Fed hamlesine ili\u015fkin piyasa ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 %80 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131 beklenen faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini zamanlar\u0131n %95\u2019inden fazlas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu denli y\u00fcksek beklentiler ortam\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev piyasalarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck riskin \u201cs\u00f6ylentiyi al, haberi sat\u201d tepkisi ya da Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcvercin bir ton gelmesi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu riski hedge etmek i\u00e7in EUR\/USD straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya Dolarda ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacak k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k sinyali verememesi durumunda, iki y\u00f6nde de keskin hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Varl\u0131k S\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 Aras\u0131 Etkiler ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi Stratejisi<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ayl\u0131k %15\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, k\u00fcresel enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirirken Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) enerji maliyetleriyle m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda mevduat faizini yak\u0131n zamanda %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00e7apraz para swaplar\u0131na da bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, Kanada Dolar\u0131 veya Norve\u00e7 Kronu gibi enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 EUR\u2019da zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Euro, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,55 gerilerken parite 1,1525 civar\u0131nda, 13 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar, Federal Rezerv\u2019in 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanman\u0131n artmas\u0131yla genel \u00e7apta g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verileri kataliz\u00f6r oldu: man\u015fet T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) Temmuz\u2019daki %0,1\u2019in ard\u0131ndan A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,4 y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %0,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %86 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %59,4 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), para birimini alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 izleyen g\u00f6sterge, 99,66 civar\u0131nda; seans i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,58 art\u0131da ve 3 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyinde bulunuyordu. Petrol de enflasyon arka plan\u0131n\u0131 besledi; WTI 100 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken bu ay %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ECB ge\u00e7en hafta y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirerek mevduat imk\u00e2n\u0131 faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareketler ise bir ECB \u0130cra Kurulu \u00fcyesi taraf\u0131ndan \u201colduk\u00e7a endi\u015fe verici\u201d olarak nitelendirildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi piyasalar alarmda: EUR\/USD 1,1525\u2019te bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, DXY 99,66\u2019ya t\u0131rmand\u0131; FedWatch %86 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 diyor. Straddle\/OTM call ile \u015foklar\u0131 hedge; petrol 100$ euroyu zorluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t