Sterlin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,3 gerilerken, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen G10\u2019daki bir\u00e7ok benzerine k\u0131yasla g\u00f6reli olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dikkatler, piyasalar\u0131n \u015fahin bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d (faizi sabit tutma) bekledi\u011fi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; piyasalar ayr\u0131ca kas\u0131m ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bir sonraki kararda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini de fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
BoE \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k veri takvimi yo\u011fun: Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc istihdam, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015flar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2013ABD getiri farklar\u0131 temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde ve bu durum sterline destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bankalara y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcndeme ra\u011fmen siyasi tarafta haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Orta vadede bir sonraki odak noktas\u0131 28 Ekim\u2019deki sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi olurken, teknik seviyelerde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO 1,3481\u2019de; ilave destek 1,3450\u20131,3420 band\u0131nda, 1,3550 \u00fczerindeyse diren\u00e7 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki belirgin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi bir haftaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, 17 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoE politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n genel beklenti do\u011frultusunda \u015fahin bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 vermesi bekleniyor. Bu karar ve kas\u0131mda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, sterlini bir\u00e7ok para birimine k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verilerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekiyor; takvim, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 raporu ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc enflasyon verileriyle ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 seviyesinde seyrederken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu verilerin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde ani yukar\u0131 hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sterlin al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 1,3420\u20131,3450 band\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu b\u00f6lge, defalarca al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi bir alan oldu. Yukar\u0131da ise 1,3550 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 korunuyor ve k\u0131sa vadede k\u0131r\u0131lma potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, bu s\u0131n\u0131rlar korunduk\u00e7a prim toplamak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu bant stratejisini, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k tahvilleri (Gilts) ile ABD Hazine tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki destekleyici getiri fark\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi 4,1% civar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Bu getiri avantaj\u0131, yaz boyunca sterlinin istikrarl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131nda kilit bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu. Daha uzun vadeli pozisyonlar i\u00e7in, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kas\u0131m politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmesiyle 1,3550 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bull call spread al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlinde g\u00f6zler BoE\u2019de: GBP\/USD %0,3 gerilese de diren\u00e7li. Per\u015fembe \u015fahin \u201cpas\u201d, kas\u0131mda 25 bp olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u0130stihdam-T\u00dcFE-veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 1,3420\u20131,3550 band\u0131 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t