S&P 500, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rt seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yeniden art\u0131ya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Politika belirsizli\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, piyasalar daha y\u00fcksek k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri uzun vadeli getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir unsur olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve federal fonlama faizindeki beklenen hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde halihaz\u0131rda fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle odak, Fed\u2019in beklentilerden daha \u015fahin bir tutum sergileyip sergilemeyece\u011fine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
Pozisyonlanma verileri ABD hisselerine y\u00f6nelik talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. ABD hisselerine odaklanan borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF\u2019ler) \u00fc\u00e7 haftada 14,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kaydederek Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; k\u00fcresel fonlara giri\u015fler ise Temmuz\u2019daki 52 milyar dolara k\u0131yasla haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyar dolar seviyesine geriliyor. Endeks, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Hazine getirilerindeki ralliye ra\u011fmen g\u00f6rece dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, dot-com \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015fan (late-cycle) dinamiklerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar yeniden g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in kritik faiz karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, S&P 500 y\u00fckselen Hazine tahvili getirilerine ra\u011fmen \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu k\u0131sa vadeli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fini a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk almak i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d olarak g\u00f6rmemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011finde\u2014son d\u00f6nemde %4,3 civar\u0131nda seyrederken\u2014hisse senedi de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131 yakla\u015fan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, as\u0131l risk merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek beklenmedik derecede \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemdir. Bu belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flem stratejisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in, son d\u00f6nemde 16 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda dalgalanan Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ne (VIX) odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, Fed\u2019in mevcut s\u00fckuneti bozacak bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde etkili bir koruma (hedge) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Son \u00fc\u00e7 haftada ABD hisse ETF\u2019lerinden \u00e7ekilen 14,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n da yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Temmuz ay\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz haftal\u0131k 52 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015flere k\u0131yasla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ilgisindeki bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck paran\u0131n sessizce nakde y\u00f6neldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, al\u0131\u015f-sat\u0131\u015f makaslar\u0131n\u0131n (bid-ask spread) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmamak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek likiditeli SPY veya QQQ kontratlar\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Tarih, agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201cbir \u015fey k\u0131r\u0131lana kadar\u201d s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, dot-com \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131\u00e7rayan getirilerle \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc benzerlikler ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu ortamda, dalgal\u0131 ve yatay bir piyasadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (defined-risk) kredi spread\u2019leri veya iron condor stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu stratejiler, prim toplamaya imkan verirken; y\u00fcksek faizlerin nihayet daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesini tetiklemesi durumunda azami riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S&P 500 d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sonland\u0131rd\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon getirileri t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131rken Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 masada. ABD hisse ETF\u2019lerinden 14,2 milyar $ \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f var; odak \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz, VIX hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t