Piyasalar, yo\u011fun bir merkez bankas\u0131 takvimine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Takvim, Pazartesi 14:30 CET\u2019te Kanada T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve Sal\u0131 08:00 CET\u2019te Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hak sahibi i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (claimant count) ile ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba 20:00 CET\u2019te ABD FOMC faiz karar\u0131 g\u00fcndemin oda\u011f\u0131na yerle\u015fiyor; bunu Per\u015fembe 13:00 CET\u2019te \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) karar\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 izliyor. Dolar, fiyatlaman\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizi %3,75\u2019ten %4,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltece\u011fine giderek daha fazla i\u015faret etmesiyle de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 faiz beklentileri risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken hisseler zay\u0131flad\u0131; AUD\/USD ise 0,7130 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma, ilave bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen yatay seyrederken; petrol, Husilerin de dahil oldu\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n jeopolitik riski g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Yen, son d\u00f6nemdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; ancak odak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar \u00f6ncesinde Japonya\u2019da kalmaya devam ediyor. Almanya DAX endeksi \u015fu ana kadar istikrarl\u0131; yine de ABD endekslerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Genel e\u011filimler; daha zay\u0131f hisseler, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc USD, pozitif kripto, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol, daha zay\u0131f metaller ve yatay bir JPY\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 FOMC faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckseli\u015fini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n bu hafta artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Faizin %4,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltilece\u011fi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla dolar (greenback) lehine uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 2022\u2019deki agresif art\u0131r\u0131mlar gibi benzer s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 114\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f; \u015fahin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden fiyatlaman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getirilere kap\u0131 a\u00e7abilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
AUDUSD paritesini 0,7130\u2019daki kritik destek seviyesini test ederken yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Parite bu e\u015fik alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD lehine getiri fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihsel olarak h\u0131zlanma e\u011filimindedir; kilit destekler k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birka\u00e7 haftaya yay\u0131lan h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksi t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, S&P 500 ve DAX gibi ana endekslerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r ve tarihsel veriler, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde hisse piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla %3 ila %5 geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. ABD endekslerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin s\u00fcrmesi halinde DAX, bula\u015fma etkisine \u00f6zellikle a\u00e7\u0131k kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da k\u0131sa endeks vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) amac\u0131yla petrolde uzun vadeli olmayan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Husi g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 geni\u015fletmesiyle tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131 petrol\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi daha yukar\u0131 itebilir; benzer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 5 ila 10 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir risk primi eklemi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f yatay kalsa da, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferli metallerde koruyucu al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hisse piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k tam bir risk-off ortam\u0131n\u0131 tetiklerse, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ile tipik ters korelasyonundan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131nda alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolara ra\u011fmen birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f; kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde koruma arac\u0131 olarak de\u011ferini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoJ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yen \u00fczerinde her iki y\u00f6ne sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle stratejisi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak BoJ\u2019un piyasa beklentilerinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 JPY, %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayabiliyor. BoJ enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ileride politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, JPY\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nmesini bekliyoruz; bu da h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket eden opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik merkez bankas\u0131 haftas\u0131: Fed, BoE ve BoJ kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Strateji: USD call, AUDUSD 0,7130 alt\u0131 put; endekslerde put. Petrolde call hedge, metaisde koruma, JPY straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t