Suudi ihracat altyap\u0131s\u0131ndaki yeni aksamalar ve kritik deniz ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeniden alevlenen endi\u015felerin ard\u0131ndan petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik riskler artt\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, bir \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir alternatif ihracat g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak durdururken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en trafik de ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksak seyrediyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Bab el-Mendeb \u00e7evresindeki geli\u015fmeler sevkiyat ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir geminin vuruldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin haberler de risk ortam\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 ABD dolar\u0131na yak\u0131n seviyelerden geri \u00e7ekilmesi, boru hatt\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi veya gemicilik ile enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n geni\u015flemesi halinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r, getirileri destekler ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131 veya gerilimin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair daha net i\u015faretler, jeopolitik primi azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol 110 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve kilit bo\u011fazlarda jeopolitik tehditler artarken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin daha y\u00fcksek volatiliteye pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk gelen ve g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131klar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Brent\u2019te paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yakalaman\u0131n bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011fi\u015fen haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na piyasan\u0131n sert tepki vermesiyle olu\u015fabilecek keskin hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel veriler, fiziki arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n 2019\u2019daki Saudi Aramco sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi Brent\u2019te bir gecede %15\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7acak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck ve anl\u0131k primler yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Halihaz\u0131rda Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici duru\u015flar ya\u015fan\u0131rken ve Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tehditler artarken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Mevcut ortamda petrol\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satman\u0131n asimetrik risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin nispeten daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu) kanaatindeyiz; bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcne odaklanarak bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leriyle (bull call spread) pozisyonlanmas\u0131 daha uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri k\u00fcresel enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frudan tehdit etti\u011finden, daha geni\u015f piyasa yans\u0131malar\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, devlet tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 itebilir; bu da Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 (treasury futures short) g\u00f6reli de\u011fer a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir i\u015flem haline getirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler, kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haneli petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 ve genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bozmas\u0131 nedeniyle, hisse endekslerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Suudi Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 hatt\u0131 durdu, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve Bab el-Mendeb\u2019de aksama artt\u0131. Brent yeniden s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; enflasyon ve tahvil getirileri bask\u0131lan\u0131r. Strateji: OTM call\/straddle, bull call spread, endekste koruyucu put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t