Alt\u0131n, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayacak Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin XAU\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. Metal, seans i\u00e7inde 4.278 dolara kadar gerileyerek 7 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.285 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kay\u0131p %1,44 oldu. Yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 ABD enflasyon verileri destekledi: man\u015fet T\u00dcFE a\u011fustosta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarak temmuzdaki %0,1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %0,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckselerek son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. CME FedWatch, 25 baz puanl\u0131k hamle i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %86\u2019ya y\u00fckseltti; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %59,4 seviyesindeydi. ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, DXY 99,57\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,50 y\u00fckseldi ve 3 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi ise ge\u00e7en haftaki 4,99 ile \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini takiben 4,95 civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar makro arka plana katk\u0131 verdi. WTI 99,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek en son 21 May\u0131s\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve bu ay %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Bab el-Mendeb ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki aksamalar kapsam\u0131nda ada ele ge\u00e7irmelerine ili\u015fkin haberler, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n bir \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2013K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkeleri toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.271 dolar ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4,33 dolar aras\u0131nda konumland\u0131; RSI 40\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda, ADX 20\u2019lerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck band\u0131nda ve MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destekler 4.272 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.150 ve 4.000 dolar olarak belirtilirken; diren\u00e7 4.331 dolar, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.538 dolar ve 4.700 dolar seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasan\u0131n yakla\u015fan Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla alt\u0131n\u0131n (XAU\/USD) 4.285 dolar civar\u0131nda belirgin bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un, a\u011fustosta t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k %0,4 artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %86 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfetmesi, k\u0131ymetli metallerde k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimi net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak 2022 ve 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 525 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc gibi agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, getirisiz varl\u0131klar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lad\u0131; bu da devam eden olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca artan enerji maliyetlerini de hesaba katmak gerekiyor: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin ortas\u0131nda bu ay %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 99,00 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu enerji \u015foku, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizlerini 4,95 ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n tutarken, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 99,57\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yor. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n tarihsel olarak emtia talebini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 nedeniyle, alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinin k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde sert bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 (SMA) 4.271 dolarda kritik bir \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma \u00e7izgisi\u201d olarak izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak \u00f6nce 4.150 seviyesini, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri gibi stratejiler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bu potansiyeli yakalarken riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in piyasay\u0131 pas ge\u00e7erek \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.331 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short squeeze g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu direncin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 kontrol\u00fc yeniden al\u0131c\u0131lara ge\u00e7irir ve daha uzun vadeli 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 4.538 dolarda yeniden radar\u0131m\u0131za sokar. Bu denli hassas ko\u015fullarda, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri korunmal\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 vurdu: XAU\/USD 4.285$\u2019a inerken T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrpriziyle FedWatch %86\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar (DXY 99,57) ve tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor; jeopolitik petrol \u015foku bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t