ECB \u0130cra Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ge\u00e7en haftaki ad\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, son d\u00f6nemdeki enerji fiyat\u0131 hareketlerini \u201colduk\u00e7a endi\u015fe verici\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u015foklara a\u00e7\u0131k bir ortamda makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, maliye politikas\u0131 ve finansal istikrara ili\u015fkin daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye otururken; ham petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, dizel dahil olmak \u00fczere ilave bask\u0131 unsurlar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Schnabel ayr\u0131ca rafinaj kapasitesindeki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve bunun h\u0131zla yeniden in\u015fa edilmesinin zorlu\u011funa da de\u011findi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ortak para biriminde hemen kayda de\u011fer bir tepki vermedi. Euro, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken; yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda EUR\/USD y\u00fczde 0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1540 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha genel \u00e7er\u00e7evede ECB, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in euro b\u00f6lgesi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirler ve yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 enflasyonu hedefler; Y\u00f6netim Konseyi ise y\u0131lda sekiz toplant\u0131da politika kararlar\u0131 al\u0131r. Faiz politikas\u0131na ek olarak ara\u00e7 setinde, 2009\u201311 K\u00fcresel Finansal Krizi d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve Covid pandemisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan niceliksel geni\u015fleme bulunurken; niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ise net al\u0131mlar\u0131n ve yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131yla bu s\u00fcreci tersine \u00e7evirir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kontratlarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcresel rafinaj kapasitesindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dizel ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 son derece oynak bir b\u00f6lgeye iterken, h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde giderilemeyecek bir arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Son sekt\u00f6r verileri, dizel \u201ccrack spread\u201dlerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 15 ila 20 dolar seviyesindeki tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da derin yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin bu enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir enflasyon riski olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla, ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, euro k\u0131sa vadeli faiz (\u20acSTR) vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda yak\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Halihaz\u0131rda Euro, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1540 seviyesine yak\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; ancak opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, para politikas\u0131 beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftik\u00e7e daha sert kur dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hedge yapmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda konumlanmak i\u00e7in, EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejilerini kullanarak her iki y\u00f6nde de ani k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerini yakalamay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca dizel ve \u0131s\u0131tma ya\u011f\u0131 (heating oil) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cbull call spread\u201d i\u015flemleri, kal\u0131c\u0131 rafinaj darbo\u011fazlar\u0131ndan faydalanmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji krizlerinden tarihsel e\u011filimler, arz taraf\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta bekledi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ECB\u2019den enerji alarm\u0131: Schnabel fiyat hareketlerini \u201cendi\u015fe verici\u201d buldu. Rafinaj kapasitesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, dizel crack spread\u2019leri \u015fi\u015fiyor. Enflasyon riskiyle faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131; \u20acSTR yeniden fiyatlanabilir. EUR\/USD bask\u0131da, opsiyonda straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t