Piyasalar, ABD enflasyon verisinin beklentilerle uyumlu gelmesi ve FX taraf\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir reaksiyona yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kanada\u2019n\u0131n a\u011fustos ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor. Zemin, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD\u2019de devam eden fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla \u015fekillenirken; ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi (carry trade) ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle JPY\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CHF\u2019teki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. USD\/CAD Asya i\u015flemlerinde hafif y\u00fckseldi ve 1,3880 (R1) civar\u0131nda seyretti; paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,3990\u2019a (R2) alan a\u00e7abilirken, 1,3730 (S1) alt\u0131na ini\u015f 1,3550\u2019yi (S2) g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan Asya\u2019da toparland\u0131; Suudi enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar arz endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131. WTI ge\u00e7en hafta %7\u20138 y\u00fckseldi ve 98,50 (R1) seviyesini test ediyordu; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi korunduk\u00e7a pozitif kal\u0131rken, yukar\u0131 hedefler 103,65 (R2), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 93,30 (S1) ve ard\u0131ndan 88,60 (S2) seviyeleri olarak izleniyor. Haftan\u0131n ajandas\u0131nda \u0130sve\u00e7 T\u00dcFE, ECB yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131, \u00c7in verileri ve RBA\u2019dan Hauser yer al\u0131yor; devam\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam, Almanya ZEW, Japonya makine sipari\u015fleri ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE, ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, BoC m\u00fczakere \u00f6zeti ve Fed karar\u0131 izlenecek; daha sonra Yeni Zelanda GSYH, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP, BoE ve CNB kararlar\u0131, Kanada \u00dcFE ve i\u015f barometresi, ABD Philly Fed ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131; ard\u0131ndan Yeni Zelanda d\u0131\u015f ticaret, Japonya T\u00dcFE ve BoJ, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n bu hafta a\u011fustos ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda artan volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde Loonie\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekleriz; ancak yava\u015flama, USD\/CAD paritesini mevcut 1,3880 direncinin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Tarihsel olarak s\u00fcrpriz T\u00dcFE verileri bu paritede h\u0131zl\u0131 100 pip\u2019lik hareketleri tetikledi\u011finden, ani fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle opsiyon stratejileri cazip bir se\u00e7enek sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 nedeniyle WTI petrol fiyatlar\u0131 98,50 diren\u00e7 seviyesini test ederken, enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Emtia 93,30 destek \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almaya veya uzun vadeli (long) vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. Son d\u00f6nemde nakliye koridorlar\u0131ndaki jeopolitik kesintiler tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %8 ila %10 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi; bu da WTI\u2019\u0131 h\u0131zla bir sonraki hedefimiz olan 103,65\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Federal Reserve ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin karar alaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik bir merkez bankas\u0131 haftas\u0131na da giriyoruz. Bu faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerinin yeniden y\u00f6nlenmesiyle \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, faiz swaplar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 okumak ve CAD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re ayarlamak i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fczakere \u00f6zetini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vade teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/CAD g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafi\u011finde 1,3880 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma izlenmeli; bu, 1,3990\u2019a do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, Kanada enflasyonunun belirgin \u015fekilde so\u011fumas\u0131 halinde 1,3730 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkma 1,3550\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Son derece yo\u011fun makroekonomik takvim nedeniyle bu hafta s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131m\u0131yla risk y\u00f6netimi \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler Kanada A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019de: s\u00fcrpriz veri USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,3880 \u00fcst\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmayla 1,3990\u2019a alan a\u00e7abilir. Petrol jeopolitik riskle 98,50\u2019yi zorluyor; Fed\/BoJ kararlar\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t