Avrupa piyasalar\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ve petroldeki s\u0131\u00e7rama sonras\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken, politika kaynakl\u0131 risk makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde bask\u0131n belirleyici olmaya devam etti. Yar\u0131 iletken ve sanayi hisseleri, s\u0131n\u0131r (frontier) model s\u00fcr\u00fcmlerindeki yava\u015flama tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131 (capex) varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131yla geriledi: SK Hynix ve Kioxia %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferken, SoftBank g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bir ara \u00e7ift haneli kay\u0131plar g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ASML yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 geriledi; Soitec %12, Aixtron %8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Asya seans\u0131 ekside kapand\u0131; Nikkei %1,0, KOSPI %3,2 geriledi. ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri zay\u0131flad\u0131; Nasdaq \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde endeks vadeleri %1,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Avrupa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti; STOXX 600 %0,0 civar\u0131nda, teknoloji %1,4 eksideyken enerji %0,4 artt\u0131. Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,0 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 107,5\u2013107,8 dolar band\u0131nda, WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,9 art\u0131\u015fla 102,9 dolar civar\u0131nda; DXY %0,2 art\u0131da, alt\u0131n %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.329 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Faizlerde yeniden fiyatlama bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. A\u011fustos \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,3 geldi; bu veri Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %87\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,96, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Gilt %5,39 seviyesinde; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund %3,53 ve OAT %4,50 oldu. Enerji jeopoliti\u011finde, \u0130ran\u2013K\u00f6rfez\u2019in ge\u00e7ici H\u00fcrm\u00fcz koridoruna ili\u015fkin toplant\u0131s\u0131 ertelendi; Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2013Bat\u0131 hatt\u0131ndaki kapanma da k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Sistemin yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131makta oldu\u011fu, \u00fcretimin \u015eubat\u2019taki 10,9 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnden A\u011fustos\u2019ta 6,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc; Yanbu\u2019da 5\u20137 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihracat sto\u011fu bulundu\u011fu ve onar\u0131m s\u00fcresinin 5\u20136 hafta ya da bir aydan uzun olabilece\u011fi bildirildi. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te oy say\u0131m\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak 176\u2013173\u2019l\u00fck bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe i\u015faret etti; fark 30.000 oydan az. Kripto varl\u0131klar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc; BTC %1,1 art\u0131\u015fla 77,8 bin dolar civar\u0131nda, ETH %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 2,52 bin dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n
Yar\u0131 iletken hisselerindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepkinin, kilit ekipman \u00fcreticilerinde uzun volatilite stratejileri veya bo\u011fa put spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131larak de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, yapay zek\u00e2 temposuna y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fmalar nedeniyle capex\u2019te bir duraklama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan endi\u015fe etse de tarihsel d\u00f6ng\u00fcler, hesaplama ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik uyumu ve adversaryal testlere kaymas\u0131yla yar\u0131 iletken talebinin genellikle h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Nitekim, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index\u2019in %35\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2022 sonlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme gibi \u00f6nceki zay\u0131f d\u00f6nemlerde, toparlanma senaryosuna pozisyon alan prim sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 kayda de\u011fer kazan\u00e7lar elde etti.<\/p>\n\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 107 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2013Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131 i\u00e7in onar\u0131m takviminin bir ay\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla, petrolde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip oldu\u011funa dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut arz k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2019\u2019daki Abqaiq drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na benziyor; bu olay ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5,7 milyon varili devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i rekor %20 s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi s\u0131k\u0131 stoklar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00f6stergelerini daha da yukar\u0131 itmesinden \u00f6nce bu jeopolitik risk primini yakalamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin bir y\u00f6ne kaymas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya uzun vadeli (long-duration) ABD tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu almak suretiyle konumlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. A\u011fustos \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k %0,3 ile y\u00fcksek gelmesiyle piyasa, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini h\u0131zla %87\u2019ye fiyatlad\u0131. Bu tablo, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %5,02 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafife alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara ciddi zarar yazd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekim 2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa enerji cephesinde de f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: G\u00f6sterge do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131, k\u0131\u015f depolamas\u0131ndaki erime nedeniyle d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr keskin enerji \u015foklar\u0131, 2022 enerji krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisini a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f ve euroyu ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda paritenin alt\u0131na itmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlayacak stagflasyonist bir arka plana kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yapay zek\u00e2 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen petrol Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131: yar\u0131 iletkenler sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Nasdaq vadeli %1,3 ekside. Brent 107$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %87; tahvil faizleri y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kripto g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t