A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketici fiyat enflasyonunun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019a yak\u0131n bir seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave bir art\u0131\u015f beklentisi de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Yeniden fiyatlama, enflasyonun hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilerleme g\u00f6stermemesi halinde Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131na dair y\u00f6nlendirmeyi izledi ve ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan alg\u0131lanan faiz risklerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda dolar\u0131n ilk rallisi ise h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi. EUR\/USD, zaman zaman veri \u00f6ncesi seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa da g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yere yak\u0131n tamamlad\u0131; piyasalar, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n yeterli olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tartarken USD i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir risk primi fiyatlad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu prim, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren siyasi bir restle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Bu dinamik, normalde daha y\u00fcksek ABD politika faizleriyle ili\u015fkilendirilen kur deste\u011fini zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yeniden \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da piyasay\u0131 bu hafta Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini neredeyse %90 olarak fiyatlamaya zorluyor. Bu beklenmedik bask\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 itti; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri kritik diren\u00e7 seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 acil haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gerekli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131ndaki ilk kazan\u00e7lar h\u0131zla geri verildi; EUR\/USD 1,09 seviyesi civar\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131. FX yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, bu karars\u0131z piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in euroda k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, dolar\u0131n olumlu faiz haberine ra\u011fmen ralli yapamamas\u0131, daha geni\u015f makro risklerin zaten fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray ile Fed aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 gerilimlerin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir siyasi risk primini de hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla uzun vadeli USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. 2018 sonu gibi benzer siyasi gerilim d\u00f6nemlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed \u00fczerindeki siyasi bask\u0131, y\u00fcksek faizlere ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7o\u011fu zaman s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamalar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; z\u0131mni ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oynakl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki fark geni\u015fliyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir dolar k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yerine dalgal\u0131, bant i\u00e7inde bir fiyatlamaya pozisyon almak muhtemelen en iyi risk-getiri profilini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Yakla\u015fan ekonomik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesi, bu opsiyon bantlar\u0131n\u0131n ayarlanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon, Fed\u2019in bu hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak dolar rallisi s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi; siyasi risk primi artt\u0131. EUR\/USD yatay; opsiyonda bant\/oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t