Alt\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n bu haftaki Federal Rezerv (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD enflasyon verilerini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi erken saatlerde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.348 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Man\u015fet enflasyon a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken, T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131 ve bu \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 y\u00fckselerek %0,2\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,4\u2019e gerileyerek Mart 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi. \u00dcretici fiyat verileri de k\u0131smen artan enerji maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyonist bask\u0131lara i\u015faret ederken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri istihdam\u0131n g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; bu hafta 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019a y\u00fckselerek (\u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %70), faiz getirisi olmayan metal i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde, XAU\/USD H4\u2019te 4.292\u2019ye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmenin ve 4.400\u2019e y\u00f6nelen tepkinin ard\u0131ndan 4.331 civar\u0131nda konsolide oldu ve \u015fu anda 4.300\u2019e do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc iz s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; k\u0131r\u0131lma halinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi 4.215\u2019e kadar geni\u015fleyebilir. MACD a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, H1\u2019de fiyat 4.355\u2019i k\u0131rd\u0131, 4.322\u2019ye geriledi ve 4.355 \u00e7evresinde bir bant olu\u015fturdu; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 4.300\u2019\u00fc, devam\u0131nda 4.215\u2019i hedefliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalan ve 20\u2019ye do\u011fru gerileyen Stochastic taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n—\n
Alt\u0131n, Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken 4.348 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesini \u00f6neriyoruz. 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin %90\u2019l\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131k ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 ralli ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde\u20142024 sonundaki seviyelere g\u00f6re bug\u00fcnk\u00fc zirvelere %65\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek\u2014Fed\u2019in \u015fahin politika de\u011fi\u015fimleri genellikle sert ve \u201cgerekli\u201d d\u00fczeltmeleri tetikler.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla 4.300 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 4.355 ABD dolar\u0131 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7abilir; 4.360 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri korunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu teknik kurulum, H4 MACD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyalleri ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc net bi\u00e7imde teyit eden Stochastic g\u00f6stergeleriyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.300 ABD dolar\u0131 seviyesindeki kritik psikolojik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkarsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin h\u0131zla 4.215 ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru geni\u015flemesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konsolidasyon taban\u0131 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan 4.215 ABD dolar\u0131 hedefi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda k\u00e2r al\u0131m\u0131na veya k\u0131sa kontratlarda pozisyon azaltmaya (scale out) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Fed\u2019den gelebilecek beklenmedik y\u00f6nlendirmelerin k\u0131sa vadede sert oynakl\u0131k yaratabilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi parametreleri korunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi enflasyon verileri \u015fahin beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: Alt\u0131n 4.348$ civar\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k kay\u0131p sonras\u0131 bask\u0131da. 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %90. Teknikte 4.300 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.215 g\u00fcndemde; short\/put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t