NZD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5790\u2019a geriledi. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 (Kiwi), Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) Resmi Nakit Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR) 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen politikay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici (accommodative) olarak tan\u0131mlamas\u0131 ve \u201cparasal te\u015fvikin kademeli olarak geri \u00e7ekilmesine\u201d i\u015faret etmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar\u2014muhtemelen Aral\u0131k\u2019ta\u2014en az bir art\u0131\u015f daha beklense de, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin fiyatlamalar\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Dikkatler \u015fimdi, ABD\u2019de s\u0131cak gelen enflasyon verisinin k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %86,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Veriler ve teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm karma sinyaller verdi. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 53,1\u2019e gerileyerek Temmuz\u2019daki 54,3 seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015fse de, 50 b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde 13. ay\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Grafiklerde parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 35,7 seviyesinde. Destek 0,5782 civar\u0131nda bulunurken, diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,5840 ve 0,5895\u2019te; daha yukar\u0131da 0,6005 yak\u0131n\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019nin kritik 0,5782 destek seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde gezindi\u011fi bu ortamda, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) stratejilerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Alt Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, paritenin h\u0131zla 0,5750 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu senaryodan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge) stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, CME FedWatch vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %86,2 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7ti\u011fi Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. ABD t\u00fcketici enflasyonu inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korurken, bu durum Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Oynak fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in, elde kalan uzun pozisyonlarda sermayeyi korumak ad\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlemek kritik.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin OCR\u2019yi %2,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yan g\u00fcvercin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Kiwi\u2019nin toparlanma potansiyelini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. RBNZ agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma yerine te\u015fvikin kademeli geri \u00e7ekilmesini \u00f6nceledi\u011finden, faiz fark\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 lehine kalmaya devam ediyor. 0,5840\u2019taki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunmas\u0131n\u0131n risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 53,1 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da, ivmedeki so\u011fuma i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca, tarihsel olarak Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n toplam ihracat gelirinin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 temsil eden k\u00fcresel s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (dairy) fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar, emtia yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Parite 0,5800 yak\u0131n\u0131nda dengelenirse iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; ancak Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin sinyaller vermesi halinde y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131sa pozisyonlara h\u0131zla d\u00f6nmeye de haz\u0131r olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r: G\u00fcvercin RBNZ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 NZD\/USD\u2019yi 0,5790\u2019a itti. PMI yava\u015fl\u0131yor, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de; %86,2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolar lehine bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t