USD\/JPY paritesi Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; 154,00 seviyesine yeniden y\u00f6nelerek Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Bununla birlikte parite, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta boyunca bant i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ge\u00e7en Sal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine de yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Piyasalar kritik merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda: Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) toplant\u0131s\u0131 ise 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da yap\u0131lacak. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD enflasyon verileri, Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini canl\u0131 tutarken, ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fckselen gerilim de g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u00fczerinden ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, risk primini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken; Yemen\u2019deki \u0130ran destekli Husiler, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki bir askeri \u00fcsse \u0130HA ve f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini bildirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ran\u2019a ait bir kargo gemisinin Pazar sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde vuruldu\u011fu belirtilirken, su yoluna ili\u015fkin planlanan K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri\u2013\u0130ran toplant\u0131s\u0131 da ertelendi. Bu tabloya kar\u015f\u0131n yen, BoJ patikas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131ndan destek buldu: Piyasalar bu hafta i\u00e7inde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlarken, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir hamle daha gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da y\u00fcksek ihtimal atfediyor. Bu beklentide, \u00e7ekirdek\/en dip enflasyonun %2\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve politika faizinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 n\u00f6tr seviyenin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yorumlar etkili oldu. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/JPY, 38,2% Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesi ile 155,30\u2013155,20 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ederken; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 152,00, ard\u0131ndan 149,17 ve 145,14 destekleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki kritik merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken USD\/JPY oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY paritesinin tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %13\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturdu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Fed ve BoJ faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayana kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck, korunmas\u0131z (hedge edilmemi\u015f) y\u00f6nsel pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da faizleri ayarlamaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite sert hareketleri fiyatl\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak beklenen fiyat geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun straddle veya strangle stratejilerini kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu sayede BoJ\u2019un beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131na verilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc piyasa tepkisi yakalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 155,20\u2013155,30 aras\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Parite bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korudu\u011fundan, 155,50 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, spot fiyat\u0131n 152,00\u2019deki yak\u0131n 50% Fibonacci destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde koruyucu put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 daha anlaml\u0131 hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi \u00fczerinden dolar talebini canl\u0131 tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu gerilim, BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin momentumu \u00fczerinde ani \u015fekilde bozucu etki yaratabilecek ve h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerini tetikleyebilecek bir \u201cjoker\u201d unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda man\u015fet kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat bo\u015fluklar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin ola\u011fan\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 154,00\u2019e y\u00f6nelerek toparlan\u0131yor; ancak 7 ay\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n, 155,30 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed\u2013BoJ kararlar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t