Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen enflasyon verisinin daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.340 dolara geriledi. G\u0131da ve enerji kalemlerini d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019na g\u00f6re A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artarak Temmuz\u2019daki %0,2\u2019nin ve %0,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131na ve sonras\u0131ndaki Ba\u015fkan bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda; CME FedWatch arac\u0131, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ABD \u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesindeki %72\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %86,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.332,30 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde yatay seyir izlerken, Bollinger Bantlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam etti. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 47,11 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 4.460 dolarda; bunun \u00fczerinde \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131na yak\u0131n 4.680 dolar civar\u0131nda ek bir bariyer bulunuyor. Destek ise 4.330 dolar \u00e7evresinde, ard\u0131ndan alt Bollinger band\u0131ndaki 4.238,07 dolar seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek kritik Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %86,2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Alt\u0131n 4.330 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyrederken, k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n politika karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanana kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nsel pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r. Bunun yerine, karar\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde tetikleyece\u011fi sert fiyat hareketini yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle gibi n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde \u201cs\u00f6ylentide sat, haberde al\u201d e\u011filimi sergileyerek, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda dip olu\u015fturup ard\u0131ndan rahatlama rallisine ba\u015flayabiliyor. Ancak Fed\u2019in beklenenden daha \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesi halinde 4.330 dolar destek seviyesinin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 4.238 civar\u0131ndaki alt Bollinger band\u0131na do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Bu riski dengelemek i\u00e7in, mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 ani bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketten korumak \u00fczere ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin mesajlar 4.460 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama rallisini tetikleyebilir. Alt\u0131n 4.460 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015farsa, 4.680 dolardaki \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131na do\u011fru daha net bir alan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ek bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne e\u015flik edildi\u011finden emin olmak i\u00e7in, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca 4.460 \u00fczerinde teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonu a\u015fan k\u00fcresel merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi yap\u0131sal talebin, uzun vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, bu haftaki sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 destek seviyelerinde iskontolu fiyatlardan alt\u0131n biriktirmek amac\u0131yla nakit teminatl\u0131 put yaz\u0131m\u0131 (cash-secured puts) i\u00e7in i\u015flem sermayesinin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn haz\u0131r tutulmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u0131cak T\u00dcFE alt\u0131n\u0131 4.340 dolara \u00e7ekti; FedWatch faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %86,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 4.330 destek, 4.460 diren\u00e7 izleniyor. Fed \u00f6ncesi straddle\/koruyucu put, 4.238 riski; 4.680 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t