\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne ili\u015fkin USD\/CNY merkez paritesini 6,7698 seviyesinde belirledi. Bu seviye Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,7743\u2019e g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (daha s\u0131k\u0131) olurken, Reuters tahmini olan 6,7083\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. PBoC\u2019nin beyan edilen para politikas\u0131 hedefleri; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 ve kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca finansal piyasay\u0131 a\u00e7maya ve geli\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik finansal reformlar\u0131 da takip ediyor.<\/p>\n
PBoC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet m\u00fclkiyetinde olup ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir kurum olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Denetim, Devlet Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Komitesi Sekreteri\u2019nin rol\u00fcyle \u015fekilleniyor; Pan Gongsheng h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bu g\u00f6revi ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 birlikte y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Politika ayarlar\u0131; yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Kredi \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) gibi ara\u00e7lara dayan\u0131yor. Kredi Ana Faizi (Loan Prime Rate – LPR) ise \u00c7in\u2019in, kredi ve konut kredisi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131, tasarruf faizlerini ve renminbi kurunu etkileyen g\u00f6sterge faiz oran\u0131 konumunda. \u00c7in\u2019de 19 \u00f6zel banka bulunuyor ve en b\u00fcy\u00fckleri dijital kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 WeBank ile MYbank; d\u00fczenleyiciler 2014\u2019te yerli \u00f6zel sermayeli kredi kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n devlet a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 sekt\u00f6re giri\u015fine izin vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
PBOC\u2019nin son USD\/CNY fixing\u2019i olan 6,7698 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Bu fixing, Reuters tahmini olan 6,7083\u2019e g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f, ancak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,7743 fix\u2019ine k\u0131yasla biraz daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu fark, sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 d\u00fczeyine yava\u015flamas\u0131yla ihracatta r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ihracat\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in renminbide kontroll\u00fc bir zay\u0131flamaya alan tan\u0131maktan rahats\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu politika duru\u015funa yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla yuan bazl\u0131 opsiyonlarda volatilitenin artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 i\u015flem d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde yakla\u015fan LPR duyurular\u0131n\u0131 ve olas\u0131 RRR indirimlerini izlemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak PBOC, g\u00fcnl\u00fck fix\u2019i piyasa beklentilerinden daha zay\u0131f belirledi\u011finde, bu durum s\u0131kl\u0131kla \u00c7in\u2019in devlet a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ekonomisini canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f likidite enjeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Pan Gongsheng y\u00f6netiminin olas\u0131 ani faiz ayarlamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131yla pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
PBOC\u2019nin \u00f6zerk bir yap\u0131 gibi hareket etmekten ziyade devlet y\u00f6nlendirmelerinden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkilendi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kur hareketlerini siyasi hedefler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirleyecektir. Bat\u0131l\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 temkinli politika patikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki parasal ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi muhtemel. Yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, USD\/CNY call opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak bu makas\u0131 kullanmal\u0131 ve 6,85 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir harekete odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
WeBank ve MYbank gibi dijital \u00f6zel kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etse de, \u00c7in finansal sisteminin yaln\u0131zca \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc temsil ediyor. Devletin sistemdeki bu y\u00fcksek a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, PBOC\u2019nin do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleriyle devreye girmeye karar vermesi h\u00e2linde likiditenin h\u0131zla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak i\u00e7in yuan vadeli i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullanmal\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7tan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PBoC, USD\/CNY fixingi 6,7698\u2019e \u00e7ekti: yuan Cuma\u2019ya g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, Reuters beklentisinden zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Bu, kontroll\u00fc zay\u0131flamaya tolerans sinyali; g\u00f6zler LPR\/RRR, volatilite artabilir. Risklerde stop-loss \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49993,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t