{"id":53961,"date":"2026-09-14T02:30:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T02:30:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/guclu-abd-enflasyonu-fedin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-artirirken-eur-usd-11585e-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T02:30:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T02:30:42","slug":"guclu-abd-enflasyonu-fedin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-artirirken-eur-usd-11585e-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/guclu-abd-enflasyonu-fedin-faiz-artisi-ihtimalini-artirirken-eur-usd-11585e-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,1585\u2019e geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde, ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon verilerinin fiyatlamay\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar \u00f6ncesinde Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na do\u011fru kayd\u0131rmas\u0131yla 1,1585 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD T\u00dcFE a\u011fustosta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarak y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131 %3,4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise \u00f6nceki %0,2\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan %0,3 ile hem \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin hem de %0,2\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. CME FedWatch\u2019e g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %91\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyede g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran, ABD \u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesindeki %72\u2019den y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ECB, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckselterek hazirandaki ad\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu y\u0131lki ikinci art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Grafiklerde parite 1,1560\u2019taki alt Bollinger band\u0131 ve 1,1555\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 1,1628 civar\u0131ndaki Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; \u00fcst bant 1,1695 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. RSI (14) 48,8 ile dengeli momentum sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n

Monetary Policy Drivers And Market Reaction <\/h3>\n

Bu hafta Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiler nedeniyle EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1585 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. Son veriler, ABD t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n %3,4 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %91 gibi bask\u0131n bir seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr bir fiyatlama, faiz ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesinle\u015ftirir ve k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikler.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonundaki kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131kla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckselten Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. ECB yetkilileri \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilese ve piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiyatlasa da, euro g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel veriler, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde dolar\u0131n daha \u00fcst\u00fcn getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n, takip eden ay i\u00e7inde euronun ortalama %2,5 de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Trading Strategies And Technical Analysis <\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 1,1555\u2019teki yak\u0131n destek ile 1,1628 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki dar konsolidasyon band\u0131na odaklanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 48,8 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde prim erimesinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi yatay bant opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ancak paritenin 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 1,1555\u2019in alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde euroda koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmaya gitmeye haz\u0131r olunmal\u0131; zira bu k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, pariteyi \u00e7ok daha derin kay\u0131plara a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u0131cak veri, sert fiyatlama: ABD T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %91\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca EUR\/USD 1,1585\u2019e indi. ECB %2,50\u2019de; teknik bant 1,1555\u20131,1628, RSI n\u00f6tr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t