Piyasalar, gelecek haftaki Eyl\u00fcl Federal Rezerv (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelip gelmeyece\u011fine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Tart\u0131\u015fma, bir politika \u201cCatch-22\u201d (ikilem) \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekilleniyor: Enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma m\u0131, yoksa y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde borca ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olarak nitelendirilen bir ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in gev\u015feme mi? Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh, ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksiyle tan\u0131mlanan y\u00fczde 2 hedefe \u201csert\u201d ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineleyerek, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonun kendili\u011finden s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanmak yerine aktif bi\u00e7imde sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunuyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k bir hamle beklentisine i\u015faret ederken, CME FedWatch Tool faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 70-72 band\u0131nda ima ediyor; metin ayr\u0131ca daha y\u00fcksek faizleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme konusunda bir k\u0131s\u0131t olarak ABD kamu borcu y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn 40 trilyon dolar oldu\u011funa at\u0131f yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rsa da yerinde saysa da nihai var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131n, devam eden enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131yla birlikte yeniden politika gev\u015femesi oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna g\u00f6re, bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansal stresi h\u0131zland\u0131rarak, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden faiz indirimlerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir; faizi sabit tutmak ise bor\u00e7 arka plan\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda politikan\u0131n yine de fazla s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Ayr\u0131ca, s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in olumsuz oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne itiraz edilerek, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu ve bozulmakta olan egemen bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi (sovereign solvency) dinamiklerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 savunuluyor. Fed\u2019in y\u00fczde 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201cpara de\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d hedefinin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131yla kritik bir karar e\u015fi\u011findeyiz; faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 m\u0131 yoksa faizi sabit tutma m\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fi hassas bir dengede duruyor. CME FedWatch verileri \u015fu anda piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00fczde 71 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de, bize g\u00f6re uzun vadeli ekonomik ger\u00e7eklik bu tek karardan \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli. Fed ister \u201citibar\u0131n\u0131 kurtarmak\u201d i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rs\u0131n, ister piyasalar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in ara versin; kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131yamayacak bir sistem var.<\/p>\n
ABD ulusal borcunun h\u0131zla 40 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu devasa y\u00fck g\u00f6rmezden gelinemez; bu \u00f6l\u00e7ek, kamunun uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faizleri matematiksel olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Tarihsel veriler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse her zaman geri ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019 repo piyasas\u0131 krizinde Fed, ger\u00e7ek bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 belirtisini al\u0131r almaz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma rotas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla terk edip likidite enjekte etti. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckselirken ve t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir \u201cfaiz indirimlerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ncesinde \u201ctek seferlik\u201d bir hamle olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131ymetli maden t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini \u00e7ok iyi al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Geleneksel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r; ancak biz, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz agresif para bas\u0131m\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) ve uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (long futures) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve alt\u0131nda daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, bu ayki toplant\u0131n\u0131n anl\u0131k oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemsememeyi ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyonist trendden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fan de\u011fi\u015fimi yakalamak i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve volatilite stratejilerine bakmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa \u015fu anda enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir m\u00fccadeleye haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Hazine (Treasury) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi (steeper yield curve) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alarak bu yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in VIX endeksi \u00fczerinde straddle stratejisi almak da ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir hamle; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed\u2019in k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, t\u00fcm varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl faiz karar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 kilitledi: Art\u0131rsa stres b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp indirime d\u00f6nebilir, sabit tutsa bile politika fazla s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131r. 40 trilyon dolar bor\u00e7, y\u00fcksek faizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez k\u0131l\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte geri \u00e7ekilme al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t