{"id":53945,"date":"2026-09-12T09:30:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-12T09:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-butce-acigi-agustosta-1668-milyar-dolara-geriledi-hazine-arzina-yonelik-endiseler-azaldi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-12T09:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T09:30:31","slug":"abd-butce-acigi-agustosta-1668-milyar-dolara-geriledi-hazine-arzina-yonelik-endiseler-azaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-butce-acigi-agustosta-1668-milyar-dolara-geriledi-hazine-arzina-yonelik-endiseler-azaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 166,8 milyar dolara geriledi, Hazine arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler azald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019nin ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e raporu, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 166,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir a\u00e7\u0131k verdi; bu rakam, 404 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sonu\u00e7, b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n

Veriler, ay boyunca federal gelirler ile harcamalar aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha dar oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakam, beklenen aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Rapor, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ayl\u0131k mali pozisyonuna dair bir anl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sunuyor ve a\u00e7\u0131k patikas\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011fi\u015fimler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

Hazine Tahvilleri, Getiriler ve Devlet Bor\u00e7lanma Arz\u0131na Etkiler<\/h3>\n\n

A\u011fustos ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 166,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede dar ABD b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 404 milyar dolara k\u0131yasla), Wall Street\u2019in bekledi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mali duruma i\u015faret ediyor. Bizce bu b\u00fcy\u00fck fark, vergi gelirlerinin olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin k\u0131sa vadede piyasaya yo\u011fun yeni bor\u00e7 arz\u0131 sunma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda arz bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesiyle Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bir \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n

Tarihsel olarak, Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma tahminleri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde tahvil getirileri gerileme e\u011filiminde olur; 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda ihra\u00e7 planlar\u0131ndaki revizyonlarla 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisinin %5\u2019ten %4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesine benzer \u015fekilde. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay d\u00fc\u015fen getirilerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flem taraf\u0131nda ise 10-Year T-Note vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ZN) uzun pozisyon a\u00e7mak, arz-talep dengesindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fimi do\u011frudan de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Hisse Senedi, D\u00f6viz ve \u00c7oklu Varl\u0131k S\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Bu daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mali sonu\u00e7, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ile \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n da iyi seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir; bu da temelde hisse senetleri i\u00e7in pozitif (bullish) bir tablo. Bunu i\u015flem fikrine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 ani piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla S&P 500 endeksinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. VIX\u2019in son d\u00f6nemde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir bantta seyretmesi nedeniyle, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejilerini kurmak i\u00e7in opsiyon primleri makul seviyelerde.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman dolar\u0131n (greenback) di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekler. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Euro veya Yen\u2019de olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu makro zemin, piyasa azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlamadan \u00f6nce \u00e7oklu varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131ndaki trendleri yakalamak i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir ortam olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz b\u00fct\u00e7e verisi piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapt\u0131: ABD A\u011fustos a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 166,8 milyar dolar, 404 milyar dolar beklentinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda. Tahvil arz bask\u0131s\u0131 azalabilir; getiriler d\u00fc\u015febilir, hisse ve dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t