USD\/JPY Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 153,70 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; ABD enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan 154,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde gerileyerek saatler i\u00e7inde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve 155\u2019lerin ortas\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan son d\u00f6nemdeki band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi. ABD T\u00dcFE, A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4\u2019te kalarak Temmuz ve beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; ayl\u0131k bazda ise fiyatlar \u00f6nceki %0,1\u2019e k\u0131yasla %0,4 artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckselerek %0,2\u2019lik tahmini a\u015ft\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek oran %2,5\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n ilk y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi. Piyasalar, gelecek hafta merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da Japonya\u2019da bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yacak. Grafiklerde parite 153,69 seviyesinde; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 157,65\u2019in ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 159,68\u2019in alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. RSI 29,35 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler 154,40 ve 155,99; destekler 153,55 ve 153,26 olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n kritik bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan parite 153,70 civar\u0131na gerilerken, hareketi belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Yen bask\u0131lad\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, Yen\u2019in \u00f6nemli bir politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu denli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde opsiyon z\u0131mni volatilitesi belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 29,35 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde seyrederken, spot piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 ve bunun yerine ay\u0131 put spreadleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 153,55\u2019teki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve 153,26\u2019ya do\u011fru gerilemesi halinde kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunar. Mart 2024\u2019teki tarihi politika de\u011fi\u015fimi gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk Yen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n net bir trend olu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce genellikle volatil ve iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgalanmalarla ilerledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ici tepki rallilerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in 154,40 ve 155,99 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda ay\u0131 call spreadleri olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu seviyeler, b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendlerinde tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalaman\u0131n (157,65) belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Nicel veriler, bir d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftinin 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n bu kadar alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc durumlarda, toparlanma denemelerinin genellikle agresif sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin gelecek hafta politika faizini potansiyel olarak %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmeye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kacak. Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak ani short squeeze riskine kar\u015f\u0131 154,50 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emirleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde uzun straddle opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 da, piyasan\u0131n nihai k\u0131r\u0131lma y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY, ABD T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 154,50 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test edip 153,70\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; Yen g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. BoJ\u2019nin olas\u0131 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m; 153,55-153,26 destek, 154,40-155,99 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t