ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Daha uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilme, son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fi dengeledi. Veri, gelecek hafta Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. G\u00f6sterge, haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 99,11 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; veri sonras\u0131 ilk etapta 99,36\u2019ya kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE a\u011fustosta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; beklentilerle uyumlu olsa da temmuzdaki %0,1\u2019in \u00fczerinden h\u0131zland\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise beklentilere paralel bi\u00e7imde %3,4\u2019te kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artarak %0,2\u2019lik beklentiyi ve \u00f6nceki %0,2\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e gerilerken tahminlerle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzin fiyatlar\u0131 %3,9 y\u00fckseldi ve ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi. 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlamalar da de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch Tool, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki %67\u2019den %88\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devam\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f uzun vadeli getirileri zirvelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %4,99\u2019u g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan %4,94 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. WTI ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 gerileyerek 96,50 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,63 civar\u0131nda kalarak (temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n) Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefini korudu\u011fu ortamda k\u0131sa vadeli politika beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki kritik toplant\u0131s\u0131na sadece g\u00fcnler kala, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Piyasan\u0131n %88 olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu beklentiden herhangi bir sapma ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, iki y\u00f6nde de keskin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY\u2019yi takip eden opsiyonlarda uzun straddle stratejileri kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %4,94\u2019e gerilerken 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %4,63 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kalmas\u0131, sabit getirili t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde dikkat \u00e7ekici bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Hazine tahvili opsiyon verileri, faiz s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde z\u0131mni volatilitenin, piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi Fed politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde s\u0131kl\u0131kla %10 ila %15 artabildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde olas\u0131 getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 100 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 96,50 dolara gerileyen West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcndeki sert hareketler de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Enerji maliyetleri, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019deki son %0,4\u2019l\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, petroldeki volatilite kur ve faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131na do\u011frudan yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeniden enflasyon endi\u015felerinin canlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde bull call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da: DXY, T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 99,36\u2019dan 99,11\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; Fed Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %88. Uzun tahvil getirileri gerilerken petrol 100\u2019den 96,50\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t