Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), a\u011fustos ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan 4.300 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndan toparlanarak 4.335 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 yeniden geri ald\u0131 ve %1,29 art\u0131\u015fla 4.3737 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 artarak beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,3 ile %0,2 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi; \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k oran ise temmuza g\u00f6re gerileyerek %2,4\u2019te kald\u0131 ve tahminlerle uyumlu oldu. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki ilk y\u00fckseli\u015f, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek hafta Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %91 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi; DXY 99,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken %0,05 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k verileri de zay\u0131flad\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi endeksi 51,7\u2019den 47,8\u2019e gerileyerek 51 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4\u2019ten %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselirken be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. K\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin 1 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,951\u2019e gerilemesiyle dengelendi; ancak getiri haftal\u0131k bazda 16,5 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131da ve bu, %3,49\u2019luk bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik olarak diren\u00e7 4.400 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.450 ve 4.500 dolar seviyelerinde bulunurken, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.538 dolarda; destek ise 4.335, 4.300, 4.282 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 4.269 dolar seviyelerinde yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, gelecek haftaki kritik Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131 ve vadeli i\u015flemlerde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Para piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan %91 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlanan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle ilk piyasa \u015fokunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel; ancak fiili politika karar\u0131 sert hareketleri tetikleyecektir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 4.400 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi ve k\u0131sa vadeli uzun pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes kullanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, reel getirilerle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon sergiler; bu da 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizindeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %4,95\u2019e gerilemesinin al\u0131c\u0131lara ge\u00e7ici bir nefes alan\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bununla birlikte, getirilerin ge\u00e7en hafta 16 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun ciddi s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yeniden kritik %5,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, alt\u0131n opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 4.300 dolar deste\u011fini hedefleyen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc putlarla korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) \u015fu anda y\u00fckseliyor ancak n\u00f6tr seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2len \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6te yandan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 47,8\u2019e gerileyerek, Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselece\u011fini bekledi\u011fi enflasyona ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel stagflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da orta vadede bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, 4.335 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunun korunmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik. Fiyatlar\u0131n bu seviyeyi tutamamas\u0131 halinde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.269 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselir ve bu, uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in iyi bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Alternatif olarak 4.400 dolardaki psikolojik seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.500 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivmelenmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n h\u0131zla toparland\u0131: XAU\/USD 4.335\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 a\u015f\u0131p 4.373\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. DXY yatay, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,95. Fed \u00f6ncesi volatilite art\u0131yor; 4.400 diren\u00e7, 4.300 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t