Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, d\u00f6rt ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k kay\u0131p seans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 510 puan art\u0131da 52.600 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareketin yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 puanl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan gelirken, kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm Hazine tahvil getiri e\u011frisinin uzun taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131nda olu\u015ftu. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 5,00% seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldikten sonra y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek 4,90% civar\u0131na gerilerken; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 5,37%\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ge\u00e7irdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz daha y\u00fcksekti ve 11 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri alm\u0131\u015f olsa da, oda\u011f\u0131 gelecek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc karara \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon verileri, A\u011fustos\u2019ta T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k 0,4% ve y\u0131ll\u0131k 3,4% artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k 0,3% ile 0,2% beklentisinin \u00fczerinde gelirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek oran 2,5%\u2019ten 2,4%\u2019e geriledi. Benzin fiyatlar\u0131 3,9% y\u00fckseldi ve ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu; enerji endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 16,3% artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek mal kalemi ayl\u0131k 0,1% ve y\u0131ll\u0131k 0,7% y\u00fckselirken, havayolu \u00fccretleri ayl\u0131k 2,7% ve y\u0131ll\u0131k 23,4% artt\u0131. Ham petrol gerilerken, g\u00f6sterge fiyatlar bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 20% y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda; ABD\u2019de motorin galon ba\u015f\u0131na 6,05 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak bir ay \u00f6nceki 5,32 dolar\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131; enerji kaleminin endeks i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 2,4%. Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 51,7\u2019den 47,8\u2019e inerken, beklentiler 51,5\u2019ten 45,8\u2019e geriledi; enflasyon beklentileri 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7in 4,0%\u2019tan 4,6%\u2019ya ve 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7in 3,3%\u2019ten 3,4%\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Vadeli i\u015flemler, gelecek hafta i\u00e7in 3,75-4,00% olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 86,71% olarak; 9 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar 4,00-4,25% olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 93,96% olarak; 17 Mart\u2019a kadar 4,25-4,50% olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 89,29% olarak fiyatlad\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Haziran ay\u0131 Fed \u201cdot plot\u201d medyan\u0131 bu y\u0131l 3,8%, gelecek y\u0131l 3,6% ve uzun d\u00f6nem 3,1% seviyesindeydi. A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, 0,6% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (kontrol grubu -0,4%) sonras\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; 18:00 GMT\u2019de faiz karar\u0131 ve 18:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ise haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 bin ve Philadelphia Fed endeksi 47,4 bekleniyor. Teknik seviyelerde 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 52.750 b\u00f6lgesi diren\u00e7; \u00fczerinde 53.000 ve 53.250 izleniyor. Destekler 52.100 ard\u0131ndan 52.000, 51.500 ve 51.300; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise 50.250 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Piyasada ge\u00e7ici bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak Dow Jones\u2019un 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 52.750 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara yap\u0131sal olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) pozisyonunu korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeks d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir miktar toparlansa da, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI\u2019\u0131n 39 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi bu k\u0131sa rallinin ivmesinin t\u00fckendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u0131sa vadeli tepkilerin kritik hareketli ortalamalarda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu benzer teknik kurulumlar, 52.100 gibi \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerine do\u011fru daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilmeye zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 5% e\u015fi\u011finden geri \u00e7ekilse bile, Hazine e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu tablo, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin 5,02%\u2019ye dokunarak hisse piyasas\u0131nda geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikledi\u011fi Ekim 2023 dinamiklerine yak\u0131ndan benziyor. Uzun vadeli kredi \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ip \u00fcreticileri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rlerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon sorunu a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek yak\u0131t maliyetleri art\u0131k ula\u015ft\u0131rma gibi temel hizmetlere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yerle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. ABD\u2019de motorinin galon ba\u015f\u0131na 6,05 dolarla rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve ham petrol\u00fcn son bir ayda 20%\u2019lik kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131, \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in enerji devlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alabilir veya iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) hisselerinde sat\u0131m (put) pozisyonlar\u0131yla korunma arayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 47,8\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinin 4,6%\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla son derece oynak bir haftaya konumlanmak gerekiyor. Gelecek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisinin Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca saatler \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanma potansiyelini art\u0131r\u0131rken opsiyon piyasas\u0131 bu riski yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor. Fed yeni faiz patikas\u0131 projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz volatilite geni\u015flemesini yakalamak i\u00e7in ana endekslerde uzun straddle stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow Jones, T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 510 puan s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 5%\u2019ten 4,90\u2019a indi. Ancak 52.750 (50 EMA) alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f. Enerji-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, Fed \u00f6ncesi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t