USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n veriler sonras\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finden geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,8150 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,8170 zirvesini test eden parite 30 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6neldi. ABD enflasyon verileri faiz beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tuttu: man\u015fet T\u00dcFE A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarak Temmuz\u2019daki %0,1\u2019e k\u0131yasla h\u0131zland\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran ise %3,4\u2019te kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,3 ile %0,2\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015farken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e geriledi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,36\u2019ya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 99 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rse de, ABD tahvil getirilerindeki yumu\u015fama ve Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ek deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %85\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (\u00f6nceki %67).<\/p>\n
Michigan \u00dcniversitesi \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri daha zay\u0131f bir tona i\u015faret etti: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 51,7\u2019den 47,8\u2019e, beklentiler 51,5\u2019ten 45,8\u2019e geriledi. 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,0\u2019tan %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselirken, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 USD\/CHF\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; ayr\u0131ca SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 kurun \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisi i\u00e7in bir zorluk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek m\u00fcdahale riskini g\u00fcndemde tuttu. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonun SNB\u2019nin s\u0131f\u0131r faiz duru\u015fuyla uyumlu olmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filim g\u00f6stermesi getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak carry i\u015flemlerini desteklerken, BoJ\u2019un daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri JPY\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve yen fonlamal\u0131 i\u015flemlerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyonlar ve vadeli i\u015flemler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019nda (CHF) k\u0131sa pozisyon almak t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8170 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 zirvelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla momentumun belirgin \u015fekilde Dolar lehine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, diren\u00e7li ABD ekonomisi ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %85\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Bu s\u0131rada ABD Dolar Endeksi, tahvil getirilerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen 99 seviyesi civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Faiz fark\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda yurti\u00e7i enflasyon son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi verileri yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,1 civar\u0131nda. SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Frang\u0131n ekonomi i\u00e7in bir tehdit oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a vurgulayarak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yaratmak \u00fczere m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bu politika duru\u015fu, para birimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6rt\u00fck \u201ctavan\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131ndan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla Frang \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 yazmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Japon Yeni\u2019nin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yeni fonlama kaynaklar\u0131 aramaya itmesiyle k\u00fcresel carry i\u015flemlerinde belirgin bir kayma izleniyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 korurken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma (fonlama) i\u00e7in tercih edilen para birimlerinden biri haline geliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Frang\u0131 satarak daha y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerini almay\u0131 hedefleyen swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131na girerek bu e\u011filimden faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8170 ile \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 zirvede: ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00e7ekirdek s\u00fcrprizi Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Zay\u0131f Michigan verileri dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlasa da, SNB m\u00fcdahale sinyali CHF\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda CHF short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t