{"id":53921,"date":"2026-09-11T19:32:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T19:32:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/getiri-oranlari-ve-petrol-rallisinin-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-altin-toplanti-oncesi-hafif-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T19:32:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T19:32:17","slug":"getiri-oranlari-ve-petrol-rallisinin-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-altin-toplanti-oncesi-hafif-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/getiri-oranlari-ve-petrol-rallisinin-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-altin-toplanti-oncesi-hafif-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Getiri oranlar\u0131 ve petrol rallisinin Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle alt\u0131n, toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi hafif geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda artan ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden y\u00fckselen gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftirmesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Gerilimler, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerine sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ABD ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 gemi ile \u00fc\u00e7 tankeri hedef almas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015fen k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc toparlansa da ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 10-20 y\u0131l vadeli tahvillerden 6 milyar dolara kadar al\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla ivmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; bu ad\u0131m 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: man\u015fet \u00dcFE a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (temmuz: %4,8; beklenti: %5,3) ve WTI, may\u0131s sonundan bu yana ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5\u2019e yakla\u015farak alt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayacak Fed\u2019in iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131s\u0131na, SEP ve dot-plot\u2019a \u00e7evrildi; haziran projeksiyonlar\u0131 2026\u2019da 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fa, ard\u0131ndan 2027 ve 2028\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimlere i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Alt\u0131n hafta sonuna girerken yatay seyretti; a\u011fustosta T\u00dcFE %3,4 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,5\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e geriledi. Teknik seviyelerde 4.510-4.535 dolar ve 4.675-4.700 dolar diren\u00e7, 4.330-4.295 dolar, 4.270 dolar ve 4.200 dolar ise destek olarak izleniyor; RSI 50 civar\u0131nda ve fiyat 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne (WGC) g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n

Fed Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00d6ncesi T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, gelecek haftaki kritik Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck, korunmas\u0131z (hedgesiz) y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, ani fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Long straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinden yararlanmak, piyasa hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa k\u0131r\u0131ls\u0131n bu sert hareketlerden faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; getiri, a\u011fustos i\u00e7in beklentileri a\u015fan %5,4\u2019l\u00fck \u00dcFE verisi sonras\u0131nda %4,96\u2019ya kadar s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Tarihsel olarak getiriler %5 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; alt\u0131n da \u015fu anda 4.400 dolar seviyesini korumakta zorlan\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in 2027\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik projeksiyonlar\u0131nda \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesi halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini ve bunun alt\u0131n\u0131 kritik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru \u00e7ekmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Kritik Teknik Seviyeler ve Uzun Vadeli F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n

Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, belirlenmi\u015f destek\/diren\u00e7 bantlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda kilit i\u015flem tetikleyicileri olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.330-4.295 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenmeli; yukar\u0131da ise 4.510-4.535 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketinin devam\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yakla\u015fan Fed bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in zarar-kes seviyelerini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere ra\u011fmen, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in uzun vadeli temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleyici olmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, k\u00fcresel merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini ve bu durumun de\u011ferli metal i\u00e7in tarih\u00ee bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, Fed sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmede 4.200 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru hareketi, daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 biriktirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda Fed \u00f6ncesi tansiyon: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve 100 dolar\u0131 a\u015fan petrol, tahvil getirilerini %5\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p \u201c\u015fahin Fed\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; k\u00fcl\u00e7e 4.400 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, g\u00f6zler dot-plot\u2019ta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t