Dolar, a\u011fustos ABD \u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131; odak \u015fimdi g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak a\u011fustos ABD T\u00dcFE verisine kayd\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, USD\u2019yi daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131p ABD hisselerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir ve gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika izleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Alt\u0131n, para biriminin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle hafif gerilerken, ABD tahvil getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k son 20 y\u0131lda g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu da sabit getirili enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d alternatif olarak cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol Asya seans\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekildi ancak hafta genelinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bunun arkas\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da s\u00fcren gerilim ve Husilerin Yemen\u2019in Mocha (Muha) Liman\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkisini H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na uzatmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. ABD hisse endeksleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapand\u0131; daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve tahvil getirileri, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE ve gelecek haftaki Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Di\u011fer geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere temmuz GSYH ve imalat \u00fcretimi, ABD eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve ECB\u2019den Lane, Kocher ve Lagarde\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131 bulunuyor. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler: USD\/JPY\u2019de 155,00 (R1) alt\u0131nda ve RSI 30\u2019a yak\u0131n; WTI\u2019da 93,30 (S1) ve 98,50 (R1) \u00e7evresinde pivot. Hedefler USD\/JPY i\u00e7in 152,10\/149,40 ve 157,50; WTI i\u00e7in 103,65 veya 88,60.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn sert piyasa hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD a\u011fustos T\u00dcFE verisi, Fed\u2019in gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde etkileyecek. Enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, ABD dolar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. FX yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu senaryoda, 155,00 \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m halinde USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ancak verinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 durumunda parite h\u0131zla 152,10\u2019a \u00e7ekilebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ham petrolde uzun pozisyon veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Husilerin Yemen\u2019in Mocha Liman\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederek arz endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu bozulma, WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 103,65 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin kolayl\u0131kla test edilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda, sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde %4,5 civar\u0131nda seyreden y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirileri, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip bir g\u00fcvenli liman haline getiriyor. ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda ise daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in endeks sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri halihaz\u0131rda ABD borsa endekslerini zorluyor; tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda S&P 500 ortalama %1,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi beklenenden y\u00fcksek gelirse, Fed \u00fczerindeki \u201cfaizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla hisse senetlerinde kay\u0131plar\u0131n derinle\u015febilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de: \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, tahvil getirileri 20 y\u0131l zirvesinde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftirip alt\u0131n\u0131, hisseleri bask\u0131layabilir; petrol Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle 100 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t