{"id":53897,"date":"2026-09-11T07:32:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T07:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ecb-euro-guclenirken-refinansman-faizini-265e-yukseltti-gozler-boja-ve-opsiyon-islemlerine-cevrildi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T07:32:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T07:32:09","slug":"ecb-euro-guclenirken-refinansman-faizini-265e-yukseltti-gozler-boja-ve-opsiyon-islemlerine-cevrildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecb-euro-guclenirken-refinansman-faizini-265e-yukseltti-gozler-boja-ve-opsiyon-islemlerine-cevrildi\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB, euro g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken refinansman faizini %2,65\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; g\u00f6zler BoJ\u2019a ve opsiyon i\u015flemlerine \u00e7evrildi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ECB, enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ana refinansman faizini %2,65\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Euro, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda genel olarak geriledi. 2026 enflasyon tahmini %3\u2019te b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken, gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bir miktar yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekildi; 2026 ve 2027 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcretimi, \u00f6nceki verilerin ima etti\u011finden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti: GSYH ikinci \u00e7eyrekte %0,6 artt\u0131 ve bu yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7eyreklik geni\u015flemesi oldu. A\u011fustos man\u015fet enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e h\u0131zlanarak K\u00f6rfez \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ve yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi enerji fiyatlar\u0131 oldu. Piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir hamle i\u00e7in alan g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacakken, 29 Ekim\u2019de bir art\u0131\u015f ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

FX taraf\u0131nda, ECB ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan EURJPY y\u00fckseldi; ancak odak BoJ\u2019da. Piyasalar, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar euroyu destekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizleri 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Teknik olarak EURJPY, \u00a5180\u2019in hemen \u00fczerindeki haftal\u0131k %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131 ve bunun alt\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; bir sonraki destek %38,2 seviyesi civar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00a5175,40\u2019ta. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m sinyalleri aras\u0131nda yava\u015f stokastik ve Bollinger Bantlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. EURGBP daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi; Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015f\u0131na kadar ATR d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc. Diren\u00e7, 86p \u00fczerindeki haftal\u0131k %38,2 d\u00fczeltme seviyesine yak\u0131n; olas\u0131 destek ise 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak (beklenti: %3,1) Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu \u00f6ncesinde, 50% Fibonacci civar\u0131ndaki 85,4p b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n\n

ECB Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrev Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

ECB\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla politika faizini %2,65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n d\u00f6viz volatilitesindeki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu A\u011fustos\u2019ta %3,3 ile \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131karken, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte %0,6\u2019l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonominin daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 kald\u0131rabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6rece sakin bir d\u00f6neme pozisyonlanmak gerekti\u011fi kanaatindeyiz; zira yak\u0131n vadede bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n

18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EURJPY opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Japon karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faizleri %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor; bu, Japonya\u2019da 1995\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir referans seviye. Parite \u00a5180 seviyesinin \u00fczerine yeniden \u00e7\u0131kmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kal\u0131rsa, \u00a5175,40 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru k\u0131sa pozisyonlar hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik g\u00f6stergeler, euronun yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fu anda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011finden, ge\u00e7ici bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131. Ani Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131, ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli stratejiler kullan\u0131labilir. 15 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya ekonomik g\u00fcven verisinin izlenmesi de euronun \u00a5180 seviyesini yeniden kazanacak g\u00fcce sahip olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7memize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

EURJPY ve EURGBP Taktik Pozisyonlama<\/h3>\n\n

EURGBP i\u00e7in, 85,4p destek ile 86p diren\u00e7 seviyesi aras\u0131ndaki bantta i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Britanya enflasyonunun %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; bu, sterlini ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilir. Fiyat mevcut direnci a\u015famazsa, 86p civar\u0131nda call opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131yla faizi %2,65\u2019e \u00e7ekti; euro dolara gerilerken b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. Piyasa Aral\u0131k\u2019ta art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. EURJPY\u2019de BoJ karar\u0131 ve \u00a5175,40 deste\u011fi; EURGBP 85,4\u201386p band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t