Sterlin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; GBP\/USD, erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3510 civar\u0131nda gezinirken piyasalar Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD A\u011fustos T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE) bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in 1,3500 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni \u201cboru hatt\u0131\u201d enflasyon verileri, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019na (BLS) g\u00f6re \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (\u00dcFE) A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, Temmuz\u2019daki %4,8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; veri %5,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentiyi de a\u015ft\u0131. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet \u00dcFE %0,4 artarken \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE %0,2 y\u00fckseldi; dikkatler, beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4 ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,4 seviyelerinde gelip gelmeyece\u011fine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019nin \u201cfaiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc reddetmesinin ard\u0131ndan faiz beklentileri g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. Reuters, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 2027\u2019ye kadar iki art\u0131\u015f daha fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, 5 Kas\u0131m karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 da fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, bir sonraki BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u201cMPR olmayan\u201d bir toplant\u0131 olarak nitelendirildi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD, 1,3445\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunurken, diren\u00e7 1,3560 yak\u0131n\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 1,3655\u2019te izleniyor; destek 1,3465\u2019te. RSI 48 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesinin, yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde 1,3510 civar\u0131nda dengeli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 48 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejilere haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, GBP\/USD\u2019nin ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacminin d\u00fczenli olarak 600 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da bu t\u00fcr konsolidasyon evrelerinde likiditenin y\u00fcksek, al\u0131\u015f-sat\u0131\u015f makaslar\u0131n\u0131n (spread) ise g\u00f6rece dar kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n
Parite, alt Bollinger Band\u0131 deste\u011fi olan 1,3465 ile orta band direnci olan 1,3560 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa vadeli iron condor sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu n\u00f6tr kurgu, piyasalar\u0131n ABD \u00dcFE\u2019sindeki %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015fi sindirdi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri \u015fu a\u015famada daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,4 man\u015fet oran\u0131n \u00fczerinde gelirse, 1,3445\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zla pozisyonu yeniden ayarlamak gerekir. Bu senaryoda, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha yumu\u015fak bir ABD enflasyon verisi pariteyi 1,3560\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu durumda 1,3655 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini bull call spread\u2019lerle yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; piyasalar, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin bir pas\u201d (hawkish hold) mesaj\u0131 vermesini bekliyor. Piyasalar\u0131n bu sonbahar\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli sterlin volatilitesinin artmas\u0131 muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, bu haftaki vade ile Ekim sonundaki b\u00fct\u00e7e takvimi aras\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in diagonal calendar spread kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin yatay: GBP\/USD 1,3510\u2019da ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019yi bekliyor. \u00dcFE %5,4 ile s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. BoE faiz beklentileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bant 1,3465-1,3560; opsiyonda iron condor, riskte T\u00dcFE\/BoE odakl\u0131 ayar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t