Avustralya dolar\u0131, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici enflasyonunun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesinin piyasalar\u0131 daha \u015fahin bir Federal Rezerv g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6neltmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,80 de\u011fer kaybetti. AUD\/USD, 0,7223 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7159 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD\u2019de a\u011fustos \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarken, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 y\u00fckseldi; y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet oran %5,3 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %5,4\u2019e hafif\u00e7e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 Fed\u2019in %0,25\u2019lik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %71 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 da 206 bin \u00f6nceki seviyeden 205 bine geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken, bunun deste\u011fiyle ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,30 art\u0131\u015fla 99,09 yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlad\u0131. ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla petrol de s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Brent ve WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Avustralya\u2019da Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunmuyor; ancak RBA yorumlar\u0131 2027 sonuna do\u011fru politika faizinin %4,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri art\u0131rd\u0131; bu da 50 baz puanl\u0131k ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Odak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE\u2019ye \u00e7evrildi: ayl\u0131k %0,4 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %0,1), y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 gelmesi (\u00f6nceki %2,5) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik olarak AUD\/USD 0,7161 civar\u0131nda seyrederken 0,7062 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; diren\u00e7 0,7198 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla Brent ve WTI ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farak h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi, k\u00fcresel enflasyon risklerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hale getiriyor. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fan ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara kal\u0131c\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak ani jeopolitik petrol \u015foklar\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir; endeks \u015fu anda 99,09 seviyesini test ediyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Gelecek haftaki kritik Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde para piyasalar\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %71 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 beklentisini a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, paritenin son d\u00f6nemdeki 0,7223 zirvesinden 0,7159\u2019a gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklerde AUD\/USD, 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece genel y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini koruyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in zarar-kes seviyelerinin kritik 0,7062 destek b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131na konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ise yeni uzun pozisyon eklemeden \u00f6nce 0,7198 direncinin \u00fczerinde net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f beklenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
RBA\u2019dan gelen \u015fahin ton, 2027 sonu i\u00e7in yerel faiz beklentilerini %4,85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131sa da, k\u0131sa vadede getiri avantaj\u0131 ABD taraf\u0131nda. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasan\u0131n birbiriyle yar\u0131\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerini fiyatlarken ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktaki s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eahin \u00dcFE sonras\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %71 fiyatlan\u0131nca AUD\/USD %0,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. DXY 99,09\u2019a, petrol 100$ \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de; opsiyonlarla korun, 0,7062 destek, 0,7198 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t