Alt\u0131n, ABD \u00dcFE enflasyonu ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na do\u011fru itmesiyle, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.320 dolara geriledi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), man\u015fet \u00dcFE\u2019nin A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; \u00f6nceki %4,8\u2019in ( %4,7\u2019den revize) \u00fczerinde ve %5,3\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisini a\u015fan bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 artarak tahminlerle uyumlu geldi; %4,3\u2019\u00fcn ( %4,2\u2019den revize) ard\u0131ndan. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet \u00dcFE %0,4, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE %0,2 y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesi %62 olan olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 %70 ihtimalle fiyatl\u0131yor; dikkatler ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda 10 gemiye sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi ve bunun ABD\u2019nin be\u015f \u0130ran petrol tankerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelmesiyle, jeopolitik gerilimler enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131; Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC) gerilimin t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken RSI 45 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.340 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.465 ve 4.675 dolar seviyelerinde; destek ise 4.252 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, kritik ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnk\u00fc beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen %5,4\u2019l\u00fck A\u011fustos \u00dcFE\u2019sinin ard\u0131ndan, y\u00fcksek bir T\u00dcFE verisi gelecek hafta Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesinle\u015ftirebilir. CME FedWatch Tool h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %70 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011finden, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun (long) pozisyon risklerini derhal hedge etmeleri uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak alt\u0131n 4.320 dolar civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor ve 4.340 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. T\u00dcFE verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelirse, alt Bollinger band\u0131 deste\u011fi olan 4.252 dolar\u0131 hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin h\u0131zla zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden 45 seviyesindeki G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) de destekliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki son askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi artan enerji maliyetleri, piyasaya temel tarafta ciddi bir bask\u0131 ekliyor. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foklar\u0131, CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nde (GVX) sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleme e\u011filiminde. Bu sert dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden her iki taraftaki ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketleri yakalamaya y\u00f6nelik straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na giderken, tarihsel veriler alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman gerileyip ard\u0131ndan yerel bir dip buldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 4.340 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara yatk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 korurken, Bollinger orta band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.465 dolara s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri koymal\u0131. Daha az \u015fahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemine dair herhangi bir i\u015faretin, 4.675 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short squeeze\u2019i tetikleyebilece\u011fi izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz \u00dcFE ve y\u00fckselen petrol, Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; alt\u0131n 4.320 dolara indi. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de. Teknikte 4.340 diren\u00e7, 4.252 destek; jeopolitik risk volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t