Mike Maharrey\u2019nin Money Metals Midweek Memo b\u00fclteni, \u201cdebasement trade\u201di itibari para birimlerinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki erimeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neli\u015f \u015feklinde tan\u0131mlad\u0131 ve bunu paray\u0131 y\u00f6neten kurumlara duyulan g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi. B\u00f6l\u00fcm, alt\u0131n\u0131n daha uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememi\u015f kamu borcu dinamiklerine ba\u011flayarak ABD ulusal borcunun 40 trilyon dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n yine de oynakl\u0131k ve d\u00fczeltmelerle bir arada g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini savundu. \u00d6nemli bir piyasa geli\u015fmesi olarak, Norges Bank Investment Management\u2019\u0131n k\u0131yaslama endeksindeki devlet tahvili a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019ten %50\u2019ye indirmeyi \u00f6nermesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile euro b\u00f6lgesi maruziyetinde azalma anlam\u0131na gelebilir; haberlere g\u00f6re i\u015flemler 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyebilir. Tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki gerilim, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin 2021 sonlar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5\u2019ten 2023 sonbahar\u0131nda neredeyse %5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00fczerinden \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi. ABD\u2019nin 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 10 ay\u0131ndaki faiz gideri 1,17 trilyon dolar ile y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15,5 artarken, Hazine\u2019nin 10, 20 ve 30 y\u0131l vadelerinde uzun u\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemde 2025 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda 2024\u2019e k\u0131yasla %7,3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 takip etti. <\/p>\n
B\u00fclten ayr\u0131ca Rusya\u2019n\u0131n dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n dondurulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan rezerv-para birimi \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ele ald\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in Hazine tahvili varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n 652,3 milyar dolar ile Eyl\u00fcl 2008\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Alt\u0131n saklama taraf\u0131nda, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Mart\u2013A\u011fustos 2026 d\u00f6neminde yakla\u015f\u0131k 86 metrik tonu Kuzey Amerika\u2019dan Londra\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; New York\u2019ta depolanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 59 tonu satarak Londra\u2019da ikame k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131. 27 tondan fazlas\u0131 Zeist\u2019e sevk edilirken, benzer bir miktar Zeist\u2019ten Londra\u2019ya g\u00f6nderildi. Yer de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sonras\u0131 Hollanda rezervlerinin %32,1\u2019i Londra\u2019da tutulurken, New York ve Ottawa\u2019n\u0131n pay\u0131 ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 %18,5 oldu; toplam varl\u0131k 612,4 ton ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki geri getirme (repatriasyon) s\u00fcreci kapsam\u0131nda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 2013\u2019ten bu yana Paris ve New York\u2019tan 674 ton ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131; Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019tan 100 tonun ard\u0131ndan 104 ton daha getirdi\u011fi ve b\u00f6ylece 880 tonluk rezervinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 680 tonunu, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k %77\u2019sini \u00fclke i\u00e7inde tuttu\u011fu belirtildi. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi anketi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta tutulan alt\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n %64\u2019ten %57\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini, yurt i\u00e7i kasalarda saklaman\u0131n %49 oldu\u011funu ve New York\u2019un pay\u0131n\u0131n %17\u2019den %14\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011ferli metallerde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe agresif bi\u00e7imde pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde rekor k\u0131rarken ve ABD ulusal borcu h\u0131zla 40 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, itibari para birimlerinde de\u011fer a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na dayal\u0131 \u201cdebasement trade\u201d h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. K\u00e2\u011f\u0131t para birimlerinden yap\u0131sal uzakla\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte uzun vadeli (uzun s\u00fcreli) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131, uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fimiz derin bir kurumsal soruna i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 servisi maliyetleri 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda %15,5 artarak 1,17 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu durum, a\u011f\u0131r bor\u00e7lanma ve y\u00fcksek faizlerin birbirini besledi\u011fi bile\u015fik bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc yarat\u0131yor. Norve\u00e7\u2019in 2,3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131k fonu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili satmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. <\/p>\n
ABD dolar endeksi \u00fczerinde opsiyon i\u015flemleri yaparak artan kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 dolar maruziyetini aktif bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor; \u00c7in, Hazine tahvili varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviye olan 652,3 milyar dolara indirdi. S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen bu \u201cde-dolarizasyon\u201d s\u00fcreci, Avrupa ve Asya\u2019da yerel kasalara y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli alt\u0131n geri ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde, dolar\u0131n geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn fiilen a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli taktik i\u015flemler i\u00e7in, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck giri\u015f maliyetlerinden yararlanmak amac\u0131yla g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, tarihsel olarak metallerde bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha ge\u00e7 a\u015famalar\u0131nda alt\u0131ndan daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterir ve mevcut parasal talep h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201cyakalama\u201d (catch-up) i\u015flemini destekliyor. Bu t\u00fcrev stratejilerin \u015fimdi uygulanmas\u0131, mali panikte bir sonraki dalga daha geni\u015f finansal piyasalara vurmeden \u00f6nce portf\u00f6ylerimizi koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 40 trilyon dolara ko\u015fan ABD borcu \u201cdebasement trade\u201di alevlendiriyor: alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131r m\u0131? Norve\u00e7 fonunun tahvil a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesintisi, de-dolarizasyon ve repatriasyonla oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t