ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131m operasyonunu 6 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu tutar, daha \u00f6nce ana hatlar\u0131yla belirtilen 2 milyar dolarl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 ve eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in i\u015faret edilen \u201cen az\u201d 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da \u00fczerinde. Program, eski ve uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvillerinin geri al\u0131narak piyasadan \u00e7ekilmesini; bunun da k\u0131sa vadeli nota ve tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131yla finanse edilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ama\u00e7, fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemek ve yeni uzun vade ihra\u00e7lar\u0131nda faizleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmek. Bakanl\u0131k bu ad\u0131m\u0131 piyasa i\u015fleyi\u015fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir likidite m\u00fcdahalesi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendiriyor. Hamle, federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin y\u0131lda 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde faiz \u00f6demesi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk gelirken, geri al\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi 32 trilyon dolarl\u0131k tahvil piyasas\u0131na k\u0131yasla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Buna ra\u011fmen piyasa faizleri per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcne girerken y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvili getirisi %4,9\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Haziran 2007\u2019den beri g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise %5,341 ile Haziran 2004\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Mortgage faizleri de Temmuz 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Emtia taraf\u0131nda alt\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselirken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 67 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kaynak metin ayr\u0131ca ABD borcu ve a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u201cyakla\u015f\u0131k 40 trilyon dolar\u201d ifadesine de yer veriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bakan Scott Bessent\u2019in tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 6 milyar dolara \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ABD Hazinesi ile serbest piyasa aras\u0131nda e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir m\u00fccadele g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik bu sert m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131n piyasa, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini %4,9\u2019un \u00fczerine ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %5,34\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, h\u00fck\u00fcmet politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bu a\u00e7\u0131k meydan okuma, getirileri yapay bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlama \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, uzun vadeli ABD tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Federal bor\u00e7 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 40 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131rken ve kamu borcunun y\u0131ll\u0131k net faiz \u00f6demeleri yak\u0131n zamanda 1 trilyon dolar baraj\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, devlet borcu arz\u0131 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir geri al\u0131m\u0131n kontrol edemeyece\u011fi kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri kullanmak, getirilerdeki bir sonraki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k; faiz swaptions\u2019lar\u0131 ve getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015ftirici (steepener) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendirmeye elveri\u015fli. Hazine, bu uzun vadeli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in aktif bi\u00e7imde k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 satt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, getiri e\u011frisinin sert ve oynak kaymalar ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun straddle stratejileri kullanmak, piyasan\u0131n Hazine\u2019nin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu d\u00f6nemdeki keskin hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu alg\u0131lanan \u00e7aresizli\u011fi, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayan alt\u0131n ve 67 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fle birlikte, de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal niteli\u011finde. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu kald\u0131ra\u00e7lamak amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla agresif bi\u00e7imde pozisyon art\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Hazine\u2019nin mali karma\u015fay\u0131 y\u00f6netme kapasitesine olan inanc\u0131n\u0131 yitirdik\u00e7e sermaye h\u0131zla \u201csert varl\u0131klara\u201d akacak; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli call spread stratejilerini y\u00fcksek getirili hale getirecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, h\u00fck\u00fcmetler makroekonomik ger\u00e7eklere kar\u015f\u0131 yapay fiyat seviyelerini savunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2014 ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki kur \u00e7\u0131palar\u0131n\u0131n savunulmas\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde \u2014 sonunda kaybeder. Mevcut getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, 2007 finansal krizine giden s\u00fcrecin birikimine benziyor; bu da finansal sistemin altyap\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi bir stres birikti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Trende kar\u015f\u0131 durmak yerine volatiliteyi i\u015flem konusu yapmak, Hazine\u2019nin ya operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmek ya da piyasaya teslim olmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6nemli kazan\u00e7lar elde etmemizi sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD Hazinesi tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 6 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p uzun vade faizlerini bast\u0131rmak istiyor; piyasa ise resti g\u00f6rd\u00fc: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,34. Alt\u0131n 4.400$, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 67$.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t