Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,90 gerileyerek 4.360 dolara indi. A\u011fustos ABD \u00dcFE verisi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f, piyasalar\u0131 Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne itti. Man\u015fet \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarken, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %5,3 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %5,4 geldi; \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ile %0,3 tahmininin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %4,6\u2019da sabit kald\u0131. Brent ve WTI 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, WTI May\u0131s ortas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %4,93\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. DXY %0,2 art\u0131\u015fla 98,99\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
5 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de biten haftaya ili\u015fkin ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 205 bin ile tahminlere paralel gelirken, \u00f6nceki haftan\u0131n alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re fiyatlamalar, gelecek hafta 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Odak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi: ayl\u0131k %0,1\u2019den %0,4\u2019e h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n %3,4\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 (\u00f6nceki %2,5) seviyesinde gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi de izlenecek. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.339 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu; yak\u0131ndaki seviyeler 4.282, 4.266, 4.200 ve diren\u00e7 olarak 4.400, 4.450, 4.500 ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.538 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 100 dolarl\u0131k petrol ve %4,93 seviyesindeki ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde yo\u011fun bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 g\u00f6stermesi, yak\u0131n vadede alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 4.339 dolardaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkma, 4.282 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,99 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken XAU\/USD \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri %5 e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011finde, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelen sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 nedeniyle ciddi r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk \u00fcstlenmeden bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, toptan enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u015fahin beklentileri besledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 bekleriz; bu senaryoda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bear-put spread stratejisi cazip hale gelir. Ayr\u0131ca 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki Brent ve WTI g\u00f6stergeleri de izlenmeli; zira tarihsel olarak daha geni\u015f maliyet-iti\u015fli enflasyonun \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyicisi konumundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, alt\u0131n 4.300 dolar deste\u011fini korur ve 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine d\u00f6nmeyi ba\u015far\u0131rsa, 4.450 dolar hedefli call opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmek gerekir. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezerv \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi amac\u0131yla tek bir y\u0131lda rekor 1.136 ton alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, metal i\u00e7in uzun vadeli yap\u0131sal talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon olmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak \u015fimdilik, gelecek haftaki Fed faiz karar\u0131 net bir y\u00f6n sinyali verene kadar savunmac\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131 ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131: XAU\/USD %0,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.360$\u2019ta. \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi, 100$ \u00fczeri petrol ve %4,93 ABD 10Y Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftiriyor. %70 zam beklentisiyle 4.339$ kritik; T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi putlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t