EUR\/JPY, ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden 179,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ikinci art\u0131\u015f oldu. Karar tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00e7apraz\u0131n son bir haftada 180,00 \u00fczerinden gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan stabilizasyonuna katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada parite %0,40 y\u00fckselirken, Euro Yen\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon A\u011fustos\u2019ta %3,3 oldu; ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici enerji fiyatlar\u0131yd\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Odak Japonya\u2019ya kay\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte BoJ\u2019dan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi ve olas\u0131 kur destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcpheler, Yen\u2019i destekleyerek \u00e7apraz\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. BoJ 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de toplan\u0131yor; olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Yen\u2019i daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilirken, faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131 ECB ile g\u00f6reli politika deste\u011fini koruyacakt\u0131r. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/JPY 179,38 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 20 periyotluk SMA olan 178,81\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutunurken 100 periyotluk SMA olan 183,51\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI orta 40\u2019lara do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Diren\u00e7 179,46\u2019da, destek ise 179,05; ard\u0131ndan 178,78 ve 178,54 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, BoJ\u2019un kritik 18 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/JPY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 179,38 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda, ECB\u2019nin %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Tarihsel veriler, 2024\u2019te birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 500 pipin \u00fczerinde hareket yaratan ani Japon yenine y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahaleler gibi \u00f6rneklerin, korunmas\u0131z y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla ezebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun ECB\u2019yi \u015fahin \u00e7izgide tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde A\u011fustos enflasyonunun %3,3 gelmesi, ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 tamamlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da orta vadede Euro\u2019da derin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. BoJ\u2019un faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 senaryosunda, 178,50 destek b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmelerde k\u0131sa vadeli Euro al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n cazip bir risk-getiri sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, BoJ\u2019un gelecek hafta teyitli bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Yen rallisini tetikleyebilir ve EUR\/JPY\u2019yi 20 periyotluk hareketli ortalama olan 178,81\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na itebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, mevcut spot pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullanmay\u0131 veya 175,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedefleyen vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7evik kalmas\u0131 gerekiyor; Tokyo\u2019dan gelecek herhangi bir \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz, momentumu an\u0131nda Yen lehine \u00e7evirecektir.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, ilk diren\u00e7 seviyesi olarak 179,46\u2019y\u0131 izliyoruz. Bu bariyerin \u00fczerindeki net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 183,51 civar\u0131ndaki 100 periyotluk hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru bir hareketi tetikleyebilir. 18 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 geride kalana kadar, pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan dalgalanmalar\u0131 atlatmak i\u00e7in tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon spread\u2019lerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY, ECB\u2019nin s\u00fcrprizsiz 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla 179\u2019u a\u015ft\u0131; petrol 100 dolar ve enflasyon Euro\u2019yu destekliyor. As\u0131l risk 18 Eyl\u00fcl BoJ: volatilite artabilir; strateji straddle\/opsiyon spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t