{"id":53881,"date":"2026-09-11T01:30:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T01:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinin-gumus-ihracatindaki-artis-vergilerin-kulce-girisini-engellemesiyle-sanghay-primine-meydan-okuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T01:30:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T01:30:56","slug":"cinin-gumus-ihracatindaki-artis-vergilerin-kulce-girisini-engellemesiyle-sanghay-primine-meydan-okuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinin-gumus-ihracatindaki-artis-vergilerin-kulce-girisini-engellemesiyle-sanghay-primine-meydan-okuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u0130hracat\u0131ndaki Art\u0131\u015f, Vergilerin K\u00fcl\u00e7e Giri\u015fini Engellemesiyle \u015eanghay Primine Meydan Okuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l rekor d\u00fczeyde 162 milyon ons g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ihra\u00e7 ederken neredeyse hi\u00e7 ithalat yapmad\u0131; vergi kaynakl\u0131 bir \u201ckama\u201d, \u015eanghay fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 Londra ve New York\u2019un \u00fczerinde tutsa da k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi do\u011fuya \u00e7ekmiyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ons ba\u015f\u0131na 66,10 dolard\u0131; son bir ayda %4 y\u00fckselirken y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %7,3 geriledi; ayr\u0131ca 29 Ocak\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 121,58 dolarl\u0131k zirvenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %46 alt\u0131nda. A\u011fustos sonu itibar\u0131yla Bat\u0131 referans\u0131 66,44 dolarken, \u015eanghay Alt\u0131n Borsas\u0131\u2019nda 75,16 dolard\u0131; prim ons ba\u015f\u0131na 8,72 dolar oldu. Hindistan\u2019da yurti\u00e7i fiyatlar %15 ithalat vergisinin arkas\u0131nda olu\u015fuyor. \u00c7in\u2019de rafine k\u00fcl\u00e7e g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn i\u00e7 piyasada sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in ithalat\u0131 %13 KDV\u2019ye tabi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k konsantre ithal edip rafine k\u00fcl\u00e7e olarak yeniden ihra\u00e7 etmek bu y\u00fckten ka\u00e7\u0131nabiliyor; bu durum %13,12 olarak tarif edilen primi desteklerken, lisans, navlun ve sigorta eklendi\u011finde tahmini toplam %15 ila %20\u2019lik ithalat e\u015fi\u011finin yine de alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Paradoksu ak\u0131mlar ve stoklar daha iyi a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Resmi k\u00fcl\u00e7e ithalat\u0131 2025\u2019te yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015ferek 8 milyon onsa (Moz) inerken, d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d ithalat %2 gerileyerek 7,6 Moz oldu; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ihracat 162 Moz ile kabaca bire-yirmi seviyesinde. \u015eanghay Alt\u0131n Borsas\u0131 ve SHFE toplam stoklar\u0131 2025 boyunca 37,3 Moz azalarak 47,1 Moz\u2019a geriledi ve on y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Hindistan ise ayr\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitti: vergiler 13 May\u0131s\u2019ta %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131 ve 99%+ k\u00fcl\u00e7eler 17 May\u0131s\u2019ta k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131; bunun ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s ithalat\u0131, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 534,3 tona k\u0131yasla 46,8 ton oldu; %91,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (15,67 Moz). A\u011fustos\u2019ta India International Bullion Exchange \u00fczerinden 89,81 ton i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, onayl\u0131 lisanslar yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 ton seviyesindeydi; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ithalat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n %16 alt\u0131nda seyretti. %14,51\u2019lik borsa fark\u0131, %18,45\u2019lik bile\u015fik vergi taban\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k de\u011ferlendirilirken, a\u011fustos ortas\u0131nda yurti\u00e7i primin ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 dolar oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f T\u00fcrevlerinde Volatilite ve Arbitraj Riskleri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcrevlerinde y\u00fcksek volatilite penceresiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z; \u00f6zellikle 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed faiz karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken. Metal son d\u00f6nemde 66,10 dolar civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak t\u00fcketici fiyat verileri k\u0131sa vadede sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Y\u00f6n bahisini erken almadan, makro kaynakl\u0131 bu fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u015eanghay\u2019daki 8,72 dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck primi arbitrajla kapatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131\u2014Londra\u2019da uzun, \u00c7in\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131\u2014kesinlikle \u00f6nermiyoruz. Bu fiyat fark\u0131 basit bir lojistik gecikmeden de\u011fil, \u00c7in\u2019in kat\u0131 %13 ithalat vergisi yap\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131k kal\u0131yor. \u0130thalat maliyetleri k\u00fcresel spot fiyatlar\u0131n %20 \u00fczerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bu prim asl\u0131nda kendi kendini koruyor ve kolayca \u201ctrade\u201d edilerek ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fiziki S\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k ve Stratejik Opsiyon Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Bunun yerine, fiziki metaldeki istikrarl\u0131 erimeye odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z; zira \u015eanghay borsalar\u0131ndaki birle\u015fik stoklar on y\u0131l\u0131n dibine geriledi. Hindistan\u2019da ithalat lisanslar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla \u00f6telenen talep ile birlikte bu s\u0131k\u0131 yurti\u00e7i arz, fiziki teslimat darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n sessizce b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde yerel arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Saha verileri de bu s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme destek veriyor: k\u00fcresel g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f arz\u0131, \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa do\u011fru ilerliyor. S\u00fcregelen bu a\u00e7\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sanayi talebinden kaynaklan\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle son bir y\u0131lda h\u0131zla geni\u015fleyen ye\u015fil enerji ve g\u00fcne\u015f paneli \u00fcretimi talebi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 fiyat geri \u00e7ekilmelerini uzun vadeli bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kurmak i\u00e7in kullanmak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki temellerden daha g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte ters k\u00f6\u015fe: \u00c7in 162 Moz ihracatla ithalat\u0131 kesti, \u015eanghay\u2019da 8,72$ prim kal\u0131c\u0131. Stoklar 10 y\u0131l\u0131n dibinde, Hindistan vergiyi %15\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. 16 Eyl\u00fcl Fed \u00f6ncesi volatilite: straddle; prim arbitraj\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n, uzun vadeli call\u2019larla s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011fa oynay\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t