USD\/CAD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ivme kaybetmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. A\u011fustos \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verileri daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etse de, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3835 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3815 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarak beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Temmuz\u2019daki %0,1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE ise %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek %5,3\u2019l\u00fck tahmini a\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %4,8 seviyesinden h\u0131zland\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artarak beklenen ve \u00f6nceki %0,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6sterge ise beklentilerle uyumlu \u015fekilde %4,3\u2019ten %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri g\u00fcndemin oda\u011f\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. CME FedWatch Tool, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde Fed\u2019in 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %64 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Dolar Endeksi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 99,20 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 98,96 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,92\u2019deydi. WTI, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97,20 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bu hafta %8\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi. Ayr\u0131ca, piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ko\u015fullar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar normale d\u00f6nmesine ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 daha \u00f6nce %50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeyken %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi; USD\/CAD ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,38\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 test etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed faiz karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken USD\/CAD\u2019de volatilite \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa 64% olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, yar\u0131n gelecek kritik enflasyon verileriyle birlikte k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece ucuz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu kritik makro geli\u015fmelerin yaratabilece\u011fi \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri nedeniyle ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97,20 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrederken, sonu\u00e7lanmam\u0131\u015f ticaret m\u00fczakereleri USD\/CAD paritesini h\u0131zla 1,40 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu siyasi s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fcn k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 bir dolar rallisine pozisyon almak ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in bull call spread stratejilerini kullanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, %4,92 civar\u0131nda seyreden ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasa karars\u0131z kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, d\u00fczenli prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla 1,3700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fcksek ABD faizlerinden faydalanmaya olanak tan\u0131rken ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasadaki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde pozisyonlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00f6n de\u011fil, volatilite \u00f6n planda! G\u00fc\u00e7lenen \u00dcFE ve %4,92 ABD tahvilleri dolar\u0131 desteklerken, 97$ petrol CAD\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Fed \u00f6ncesi straddle, bull call spread ve 1,3700 OTM put yaz\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t