Avustralya dolar\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flayarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde may\u0131s ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en iyi seviyesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 0,7200\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi. AUD\/USD, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle 0,7220 civar\u0131ndaki son zirveden geri \u00e7ekilerek 0,7160 b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019in bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve daha geni\u015f finansal sistemine y\u00f6nelik bildirilen 54 milyar dolarl\u0131k te\u015fvik plan\u0131, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in talebine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle daha \u00f6nce para birimini desteklemi\u015f; parite bu haftaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften \u00f6nce haziran dip seviyesinden sert bir toparlanma kaydetmi\u015fti. RBA cephesinden de destek geldi: \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirme ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n bu ay i\u00e7inde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon beklentileri ise ters y\u00f6nde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,4 artmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019den bir ad\u0131m gelmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yap\u0131\u015fkan tutmas\u0131 da dolar\u0131 destekliyor. D\u00f6rt saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD 0,7167 seviyesinde; 100 periyotluk SMA olan 0,7174\u2019\u00fcn ve 20 periyotluk SMA olan 0,7215\u2019in alt\u0131nda. RSI\u2019\u0131n 29 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lk destek 0,7157\u2019de; diren\u00e7ler 0,7174 ve 0,7193, ard\u0131ndan 0,7213 ve 0,7215; daha yukar\u0131da 0,7223 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
10 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 itibar\u0131yla piyasada yol al\u0131rken, \u015fahin bir Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) ile diren\u00e7li bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (\u00dcFE) a\u011fustosta %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda inatla tutunmas\u0131, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 da bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu ikili faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratmas\u0131 beklenen sert kur hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen uzun straddle (long straddle) pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme yak\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AUD\/USD paritesi 0,7167\u2019de ve 0,7157\u2019deki kritik destek taban\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 0,7157\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almal\u0131y\u0131z. Ancak G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 29 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 takip ederek pozisyona girmemeye dikkat etmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u00c7in\u2019in 54 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck finansal te\u015fvik paketi, ticarete duyarl\u0131 Avustralya ekonomisi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sunuyor. 0,7157 deste\u011fi korunursa, 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) olan 0,7174\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 hedeflemek \u00fczere vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 yak\u0131n (near-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir. Bu strateji, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m teknik ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve olumlu ticaret alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fcksek riskli d\u00f6nemde risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z riskli (naked) opsiyonlar yerine tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli spread stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 0,7157 \u00fczerinde bull call spread\u2019ler veya bunun alt\u0131nda bear put spread\u2019ler, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli korurken olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,7215 ve 0,7223 gibi \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyeleri izlenirken, riskin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle 0,7200 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; \u00c7in te\u015fviki ve \u015fahin RBA deste\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131n ABD \u00dcFE %5,4 ve petrol 100$ enflasyon korkusu yarat\u0131yor. Teknikte 0,7157 kritik; RSI 29. Oynakl\u0131kta straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t