Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcFE (PPI) verisi \u00f6ncesinde dengelenmesiyle per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Metal, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.434 dolarl\u0131k zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.383 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,71\u2019lik dip seviyenin ard\u0131ndan 98,90 \u00e7evresinde seyretti. Piyasalar, a\u011fustosta \u00fcretici enflasyonunun yeniden h\u0131zlan\u0131p h\u0131zlanmayaca\u011f\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Man\u015fet \u00dcFE\u2019nin temmuzdaki ayl\u0131k %0,0\u2019dan sonra ayl\u0131k %0,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise %4,7\u2019den %5,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e, y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2\u2019den %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, CME FedWatch Tool 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %62 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Reuters\u2019\u0131n ekonomist anketi y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tahvil geri al\u0131m plan\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklemekte yetersiz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %4,85 civar\u0131nda ve Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 4.538 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrediyor; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 49 seviyesinde ve MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7ler 4.538 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.700 dolar olarak izlenirken; destek seviyeleri son kapan\u0131\u015fa yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede, 4.340 dolar, 4.266 dolar ve 4.000 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 genellikle enflasyonu %2 civar\u0131nda hedefler; daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha y\u00fcksek faizler \u00fczerinden para birimini desteklerken, y\u00fcksek faizler getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131na (XAU\/USD) y\u00f6nelik savunmac\u0131, sat\u0131\u015f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 (short-biased) bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 98,90 civar\u0131nda dengelenmesi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %4,85 ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveye yak\u0131n seyretmesi, alt\u0131n gibi getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in belirgin bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak reel getiriler y\u00fckselip dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011finde, metali elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclme e\u011filimi artar.<\/p>\n\n
Riskin etkin y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan ABD \u00dcFE (PPI) ve T\u00dcFE (CPI) verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Ekonomistler, man\u015fet y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE\u2019nin %5,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, k\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda son bir ayda %5\u2019i a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015flerin de etkili oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Beklentileri a\u015fan bir enflasyon verisi, piyasalar\u0131n 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; halihaz\u0131rda piyasalar art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %62 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f (short) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama \u00e7evresindeki 4.340 dolarl\u0131k ilk destek b\u00f6lgesinin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 49 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede seyrederken, MACD\u2019nin negatif kalmas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki denemelerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Beklenmedik bir g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde 4.538 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD \u00dcFE\u2019de: Alt\u0131n 4.434\u2019ten 4.383\u2019e \u00e7ekilirken DXY 98,90\u2019da, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,85 ile bask\u0131 artt\u0131. Piyasalar Fed\u2019de %62 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; 4.538 \u00fcst\u00fc stopla k\u0131sa \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t