ABD dolar\u0131, ABD Hazine\u2019sinin bor\u00e7 piyasas\u0131ndaki faaliyetlerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, ECB\u2019nin politikay\u0131 agresif \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma isteklili\u011fi ve sermayenin ABD\u2019den Japonya\u2019ya kaymas\u0131 nedeniyle son alt\u0131 seanstan be\u015finde geriledi. Yen\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f bu hareketi peki\u015ftirirken, Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak ralli yapmas\u0131, S&P 500\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilme ve artan Hazine tahvili getirileri \u201cgreenback\u201de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir destek sa\u011flayamad\u0131. K\u0131sa bir aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, piyasalar\u0131n ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funa yeniden odaklanmas\u0131yla bask\u0131 yeniden artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hazine, uzun vadeli tahvillerden 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m yapmay\u0131, kas\u0131m ba\u015f\u0131na kadar alt\u0131 operasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi ve ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 aya ili\u015fkin planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca 1,1 trilyon dolarla Treasuries\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck sahibi olan Japonya\u2019da; Japon yerle\u015fikler ayr\u0131ca 5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ilave yabanc\u0131 varl\u0131k tutuyor. Yurti\u00e7i getirilerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve uzun vadeli Japon tahvil getirilerinin 1990\u2019lardan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, GPIF ve di\u011fer emeklilik fonlar\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131nda, sermayenin \u00fclkeye geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc (repatriasyon) te\u015fvik edebilir. Norve\u00e7, Japon varl\u0131klar\u0131na milyarlarca dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Yen, tahvil getirisi farklar\u0131na g\u00f6re en fazla de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda olan G10 para birimi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, BoJ\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131 bir \u201cd\u00fczeltici\u201d unsur olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY ve EUR\/JPY\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Temmuz 2024\u2019te politika faizini %0,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen yen carry trade\u2019inin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, daha derin bir sermaye repatriasyonu evresine giriyor. Japon 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirilerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,0 ile \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretmesi, Japon kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n devasa yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri getirmesi i\u00e7in yurti\u00e7i te\u015fviki hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Japonlar\u0131n sahip oldu\u011fu yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131n hacminin, dolar bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu trendi son derece tehlikeli hale getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD Hazine tahvillerinde 1,1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 varl\u0131k tutuyor. Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar tahsislerini Tokyo\u2019ya geri kayd\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a, USD\/JPY \u00fczerindeki s\u00fcrekli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019de orta vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, repatriasyon trendleri yerle\u015fti\u011finde kur hareketlerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve ABD getirilerindeki ge\u00e7ici toparlanmalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman dikkate almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yen paritelerinde ima edilen volatilite y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, yap\u0131sal sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan temel bask\u0131, y\u00f6nsel olarak k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar neden t\u00f6kezliyor? ECB \u015fahinli\u011fi, Hazine endi\u015feleri ve Japonya\u2019ya sermaye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u201cgreenback\u201di bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Yen carry \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi h\u0131zlan\u0131rken, USD\/JPY ve EUR\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi; put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t