Sterlin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3552\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek 29 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinin artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen. Hareket, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimle destekleniyor: Piyasalar bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemiyor, ancak Mart ay\u0131na kadar en az iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde yaln\u0131zca iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyon da yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; T\u00dcFE Temmuz\u2019da %2,6\u2019dan %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, petrol ve do\u011falgaz maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomide bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, piyasa varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 so\u011futmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n garanti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve sonbahar B\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesindeki mali riskler belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknik olarak GBP\/USD, 1,3566\u2019da direnci zorluyor ve yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 1,3572\u2019ye kadar uzayabilir; ancak mevcut konsolidasyon 1,3533\u2019e kadar geni\u015fledi. Band\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma 1,3527\u2019yi hedefleyebilir; daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k 1,3452\u2019yi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve y\u00fckseliyor; saatlik (H1) Stokastik 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde olmakla birlikte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor ve 20\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareket bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,3552 ile iki haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Sterlin k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterse de 1,3566\u20131,3572 aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine h\u0131zla yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tavan\u0131n test edilmesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sterline y\u00f6nelik temel destek, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesinden ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan geliyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022 enerji krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda Brent petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken \u0130ngiliz sterlini sert oynakl\u0131k ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %10\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015fti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu tarihsel e\u011filimi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ani risklere kar\u015f\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla kullanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in yaln\u0131zca iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, gelecek y\u0131l Mart ay\u0131na kadar en az iki BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle bir \u201cpolitika fark\u0131\u201d olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak BoE\u2019nin bu agresif beklentileri aktif \u015fekilde t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesi, piyasada hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in knock-out opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flemlerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Stokastik osilat\u00f6r gibi teknik g\u00f6stergeler paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011funu ve sert bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek 1,3527\u2019ye do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Kurun 1,3520\u2019nin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 1,3452 olan daha geni\u015f hedefe do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in, son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 korumak ad\u0131na 1,3530 civar\u0131nda zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin 1,3552 ile iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinde: BoE\u2019nin Mart\u2019a kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Ancak enerji 100$ \u00fcst\u00fc risk yarat\u0131yor. 1,3566-1,3572 diren\u00e7; 1,3527\/1,3452 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t