AUD\/JPY, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 110,75 civar\u0131na gerileyerek 111,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentileriyle g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Reuters anketi, politika faizinin eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %1,25\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131na ve ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019nin 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %1,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. BoJ Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Kazuyuki Masu, enflasyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, Hajime Takata daha \u00f6nce art arda hamle ihtimaline dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f ve 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u201cmutlaka \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. \u00d6te yandan DBS Group Research, Temmuz 2024\u2019teki beklenmedik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n JPY carry-trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sert \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesini tetiklemesinin ard\u0131ndan, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrprizlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n\n
Grafikte parite, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve Bollinger Bantlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 33 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde bulunurken yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn bask\u0131l\u0131 (ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc) kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Diren\u00e7ler 111,63 ve 112,52 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO ve Bollinger orta \u00e7izgisiyle hizalanan 113,10 seviyesi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bariyer olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00fcst bant ise 115,60 civar\u0131nda. \u0130lk destek 110,60; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 110,00 seviyesini, ard\u0131ndan 109,24\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na oynayacak \u015fekilde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda (futures) k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur 110,75 civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Fiyat\u0131n 110,60\u2019taki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, psikolojik 110,00 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, faiz oran\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki de\u011fi\u015fimle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Son piyasa anketleri BoJ\u2019un bu ay faizi %1,25\u2019e, gelecek y\u0131l ise %1,75\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, artan i\u00e7 enflasyon riskleriyle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in agresif ve art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na dair sinyaller veriyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6sterge faizinin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, tarihsel olarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen faiz getirisi avantaj\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla daralt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Temmuz 2024\u2019te carry-trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanma riskine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor; o d\u00f6nemde BoJ\u2019un yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131yla yen h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel piyasalar t\u00f6kezlemi\u015fti. Bu tarihi s\u00fcre\u00e7te AUD\/JPY paritesi birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %19 gerileyerek bu t\u00fcr \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelerin ne kadar sert olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Put spread gibi oynakl\u0131k temelli t\u00fcrev stratejileri kullanmak, ani piyasa \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 33 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyretse de, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum eksikli\u011fi \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tepki ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in 111,63\u2019teki ilk \u00f6nemli direncin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri \u00f6neriyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n hedeflerde ise 110,00 taban\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, A\u011fustos dip seviyesi olan 109,24\u2019e do\u011fru hareket izlenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY 110,75\u2019e gerilerken BoJ\u2019un agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi yeni sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ay\u0131: RSI 33, 110,60 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 110,00-109,24 hedef; diren\u00e7 111,63.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t