Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra toparlanarak bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131; ancak piyasalar ABD enflasyon verilerini beklerken 4.450 dolarl\u0131k pivotun alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam etti. ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek. S\u00f6z konusu verilerin, Fed\u2019in 16 Eyl\u00fcl faiz karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) y\u00f6nlendirmesi bekleniyor. Piyasalar 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 10\u201320 y\u0131l vadeli tahvillerde geri al\u0131m tutar\u0131n\u0131 2 milyar dolardan 6 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD tahvil getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; ancak haberlere g\u00f6re piyasa beklentisi en az 10 milyar dolar y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimlerin risk primini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla petrol \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna, ABD\u2019nin Umman K\u00f6rfezi ile Kharg Adas\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda be\u015f \u0130ran petrol tankerini bat\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda 10 gemiye sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler de eklendi. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da faiz beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor; RBA ise bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir ad\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.362 dolar) \u00fczerinde; ancak 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.491 dolar) alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7, %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesine yak\u0131n 4.427 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; MACD s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif, RSI ise 51 civar\u0131nda. Destek 4.362 dolar \u00e7evresinde; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.344, 4.260 ve 4.141 dolar seviyeleri izleniyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc engeller ise 4.491 ve 4.530 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisine yakla\u015f\u0131rken alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda kritik 4.450 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmelidir. Bu, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rneklerin s\u00fcrpriz enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131ndaki ilk saatlerde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde dalgalanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n makroekonomik de\u011fi\u015fimlere son derece duyarl\u0131 kalan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 seviyesinde g\u00f6steriyor; bu alg\u0131, son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileriyle belirgin \u015fekilde destekleniyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE beklentileri a\u015farsa, dolar cephesinde ani bir y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc alt\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla 4.362 dolardaki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki son denizcilik gerilimlerinin ard\u0131ndan petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle enerji maliyetlerini yapay bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 itiyor. Enerji enflasyonu \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE metriklerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ham petrol al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (call) hedge etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu kritik koridordan sevkiyatta s\u00fcren aksakl\u0131klar haftalar i\u00e7inde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2013%15 art\u0131rabildi; bu da k\u00fcresel enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan fiyatlanan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f da dahil olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n senkronize \u015fahinle\u015fmesini hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. D\u00fcnya genelinde y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor; bu nedenle uzun alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, n\u00f6tr-dar bantl\u0131 alt\u0131n teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ile \u015fekillenen makro ortam aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanan k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler olu\u015fturmaya odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD enflasyonunda: Alt\u0131n 4.450 pivot alt\u0131nda toparlansa da Fed\u2019e %60 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tahvil getirileri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle volatilite art\u0131yor; 4.362 destek, 4.491 diren\u00e7 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t