\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc USD\/CNY merkez paritesini 6,7766 olarak belirledi; bu seviye \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,7769\u2019un bir miktar alt\u0131nda olsa da Reuters tahmini olan 6,7074\u2019\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. PBoC\u2019nin beyan etti\u011fi para politikas\u0131, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kur istikrar\u0131 d\u00e2hil fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya odaklan\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in finansal piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7may\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirmeyi hedefleyen finansal reformlar\u0131 da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet m\u00fclkiyetindedir ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir kurum olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131yor. Y\u00f6netim ve y\u00f6nlendirme, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ba\u015fkanl\u0131k (guvern\u00f6rl\u00fck) g\u00f6reviyle birlikte Pan Gongsheng\u2019in y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi komite sekreterinin etkisi alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Politika uygulamas\u0131nda yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Kredi Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) gibi ara\u00e7lardan yararlan\u0131l\u0131rken; Kredi Ana Faizi (LPR), kredi, konut kredisi ve mevduat faizlerini ve ayn\u0131 zamanda renminbinin kurunu etkileyen referans faiz oran\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019de 19 \u00f6zel banka bulunuyor; WeBank ve MYbank en b\u00fcy\u00fck dijital kredit\u00f6rler konumunda ve 2014\u2019te getirilen kurallar, yerli kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6zel kredit\u00f6rlerin devlet a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 sisteme giri\u015fine izin vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son USD\/CNY fixingini 6,7766 seviyesinde belirlemesi ve bunun Reuters tahmini olan 6,7074\u2019\u00fcn kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir renminbiye tolerans g\u00f6stermeye istekli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bizce bu ad\u0131m, i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu politika duru\u015funu yak\u0131n vadede yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu politika uyumu, \u00c7in verilerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 deflasyonist bask\u0131lara i\u015faret etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor; son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 civar\u0131nda inatla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Bu arada sanayi \u00fcretimi %5\u2019in alt\u0131na yava\u015flad\u0131; bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterge kredi faizlerini tarih\u00ee dip seviyelerde tutmaya zorluyor. Bu makroekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara kar\u015f\u0131, PBoC\u2019nin gev\u015fek duru\u015funu korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve paran\u0131n daha fazla bask\u0131 testine maruz kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu trendten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon almak \u00fczere USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu biriktirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Risk reversal stratejileri\u2014paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131rken sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmak\u2014bu pozisyonlar\u0131n finansman\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Kur riski y\u00f6neten \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, yuan zay\u0131flarken artabilecek ithalat maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bug\u00fcnden vadeli (forward) s\u00f6zle\u015fme yapmak koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, PBoC\u2019nin fixing oran\u0131n\u0131n piyasa tahminlerinden bu denli keskin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na izin verdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler, \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 kur de\u011fer kayb\u0131 trendlerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur. \u00d6nceki gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde bu t\u00fcr sapmalar, offshore yuanda bir ay i\u00e7inde %2 ile %3 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcnl\u00fck fixinglerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi, renminbi i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok yuan sinyali: PBoC USD\/CNY fixingini 6,7766\u2019ya \u00e7ekti; Reuters beklentisinin \u00fczerinde kalarak zay\u0131f renminbiye tolerans mesaj\u0131 verdi. Deflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken gev\u015fek duru\u015f, ihracat deste\u011fi ve opsiyon\/forward stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t