USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ancak sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ivmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Hazine\u2019sinin geri al\u0131m (buyback) g\u00fcncellemesinin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. Parite 153,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 153,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyini test etti. Hazine, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma senetlerinde operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na daha \u00f6nce belirtilen 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k asgari seviyenin \u00fczerinde, 6 milyar dolara kadar geri al\u0131m yapabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,85 ile Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 21 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 98,60\u2019tan toparlanarak 98,80 civar\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gidece\u011fi beklentilerinden destek almaya devam etti. 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 piyasalarda tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da yenle fonlanan carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini ve yurda d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (repatriation) ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ediyor. Dikkatler \u015fimdi Fed\u2019in 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (\u00dcFE\/PPI) ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) \u00e7evrildi; CME FedWatch, piyasan\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik tarafta rapor, 153 civar\u0131nda destek, 152\u2019ye yak\u0131n 2026 dibi ve 155 seviyesinde diren\u00e7 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/JPY paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na oynayacak \u015fekilde, ba\u015fa ba\u015fa (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019un 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla birlikte yen fonlamal\u0131 carry trade\u2019lerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ivme kazan\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ortalama %2,5\u2013%2,8 band\u0131nda seyretmesi, makro bask\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Yen\u2019den yana oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi ge\u00e7ici olarak %4,85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olsa da, bu dolar toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 98,80 \u00fczerindeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ramamas\u0131, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu ge\u00e7ici tepkiyi, fiyat\u0131n 155,00\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte USD\/JPY vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturarak de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki ABD \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE verileri \u00f6ncesinde uzun straddle gibi volatilite al\u0131m stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu enflasyon verileri, piyasalar\u0131n \u015fu an %60 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl Fed faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek. Verilerin beklentiden daha yumu\u015fak gelmesi halinde, 153,00\u2019daki kritik psikolojik deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 153,00 taban\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde, 152,00 civar\u0131ndaki 2026 dibine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 destekten; kal\u0131c\u0131, politika kaynakl\u0131 Yen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, mevcut uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 (hedge) kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev portf\u00f6ylerinin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada beklenen keskin ve \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgalanmalara uyum sa\u011flayabilmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek esneklikte tutulmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 153,50\u2019de zay\u0131f; Hazine\u2019nin 6 milyar $ buyback\u2019iyle dolar k\u0131sa soluklu toparland\u0131, BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni destekliyor. Kritik \u00dcFE\/T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi: put, straddle, 155\u2019te short; 153 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 152 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t