ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri, Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131ndan 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; bu tutar, operasyonun ola\u011fan b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,85\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %5,30\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; daha uzun vadede 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,31\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta daha \u00f6nce ihra\u00e7 edilmi\u015f menkul k\u0131ymet al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n\n
Son geri al\u0131m, 10 ve 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k menkul k\u0131ymetleri hedefliyor ve uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken ve getiriler 2008 K\u00fcresel Finans Krizi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, likiditeyi ve d\u00fczenli piyasa i\u015fleyi\u015fini desteklemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli operasyona ra\u011fmen getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi, uzun vadeli tahvillerde s\u00fcregelen sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etti. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 98,85\u2019e toparlan\u0131rken, alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 4.391 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, uzun vadeli (long-duration) ABD Hazine tahvili borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hazine\u2019nin 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k dev geri al\u0131m\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 durduramad\u0131; bu da piyasa momentumu\u2019nun net bi\u00e7imde tahvil ay\u0131lar\u0131ndan yana oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, uzun vadeli getiriler 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde mevcut %5,30 gibi kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, opsiyon z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility) artma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir ve yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getirir.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fcksek getiri rejimlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc benzer d\u00f6nemlerde \u2014 \u00f6rne\u011fin 2023 sonundaki sert tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,02\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken \u2014 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bor\u00e7lanma arac\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi %40\u2019tan fazla artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri \u015fu anda %4,85\u2019te, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise %5,31\u2019de seyrederken, getiri e\u011frisi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir dikle\u015fme (steepening) bask\u0131s\u0131 sergiliyor; bunu kamu geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 kolayca d\u00fczeltemez. Prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften pay almak i\u00e7in, Hazine tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde ay\u0131 put spreadlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Diren\u00e7li tahvil getirileri, dolara da yeni bir ivme kazand\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. DXY 98,85\u2019e toparlan\u0131rken, dolar Hazine getirilerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Getiri kaynakl\u0131 bu deste\u011fin endeksi 100 seviyesindeki psikolojik dirence yeniden ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu nedenle Euro ve Japon Yeni\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda ise, alt\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde call opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n 4.391 dolar seviyesine uzanan tarihi bir ralli ya\u015fasa da, risksiz getiri %5,30\u2019a y\u00fckselince artan f\u0131rsat maliyetleri ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak k\u00e2r realizasyonunu tetikleyecektir. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihsel veriler, reel getiriler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde alt\u0131n borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da de\u011ferli metalde daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hazine\u2019nin ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc 6 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri al\u0131m\u0131 bile sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131ramad\u0131: ABD tahvil getirileri s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131 (10Y %4,85; 30Y %5,30). Dolar toparland\u0131, alt\u0131n geriledi; put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t