USD\/CHF \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; daha zay\u0131f bir ABD Dolar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 yeniden de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Parite 0,8078 civar\u0131nda seyrederken yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Hareket, Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki rallinin Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 8 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi ise 98,67 civar\u0131nda, 21 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u2019daki geri \u00e7ekilme, \u015fahin Fed beklentilerinin faizleri g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen devam etti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi %4,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Hazine\u2019nin, ge\u00e7en ay en az 4 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda daha uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 senedi alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, saat 15:00 GMT\u2019de tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve %2 hedefi \u00f6ncesinde ABD enflasyonunu izliyor; \u00dcFE (PPI) Per\u015fembe, T\u00dcFE (CPI) ise Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131 ve Frang\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 durmaya haz\u0131r olmas\u0131, USD\/CHF\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazanan Japon Yeni\u2019nin etkisiyle belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve bu durum USD\/CHF paritesini 0,8078 civar\u0131na \u00e7ekiyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,67 ile \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 diplerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n maj\u00f6r paritelerde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in USD\/CHF\u2019de vade k\u0131sa, ba\u015faba\u015f seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 gibi stratejiler \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93,50 dolar civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yarak Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Olas\u0131 ek arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bo\u011fa call spreadlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu enerji s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 muhtemel; bu da emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde \u00f6nemli i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE verilerinin ard\u0131ndan, 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed faiz karar\u0131yla birlikte Hazine piyasalar\u0131 sert hareketlere haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. G\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %4,80 ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da faizlere ili\u015fkin yo\u011fun piyasa endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek \u00f6nem derecesine sahip bu makro verilerin tetikleyece\u011fi keskin oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde straddle stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 \u015fu anda g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor olsa da, s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 koruyan ve tarihsel olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeyi \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in aktif bi\u00e7imde piyasaya m\u00fcdahil olabilen \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Bu m\u00fcdahale riski, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn sert bir taban bulabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa USD\/CHF pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlenmesini veya prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor: USD\/CHF 0,8078\u2019e gerilerken Yen rallisi bask\u0131 kuruyor. Petrol 93,5 dolarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bozuyor. Fed, \u00dcFE-T\u00dcFE ve tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor. SNB m\u00fcdahalesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t