TD Securities, piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na daha y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer k\u0131ymetli metallerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu belirtti. Kurum, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD istihdam verisinin \u00f6nce k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak daha az \u015fahin Fed ileti\u015fimi ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalelerin bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletti\u011fini; bunun da piyasan\u0131n yeni veri ve man\u015fetlere duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Analistler, bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verisi oldu\u011funu ve bunun Fed fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (discretionary) ak\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015fekillendirmesini beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilirken, daha yumu\u015fak okumalar yeniden iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 pozisyonlanmay\u0131 te\u015fvik edebilir. Yap\u0131sal fakt\u00f6rlerin destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken; yeniden canlanan dolar\u0131n de\u011fer a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (dollar-debasement) temas\u0131, y\u00fcksek merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ETF\u2019lerde yeniden ba\u015flayan birikim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, daha \u015fahin bir Fed duru\u015fu bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f hamlesini sekteye u\u011fratmaktan ziyade geciktirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verisine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son piyasa verileri, merkez bankas\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fime ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n dikkat \u00e7ekici \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek seviyelerini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Yakla\u015fan t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in nihai tetikleyici i\u015flevi g\u00f6recek.<\/p>\n\n
Enflasyon verisinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla alt\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya bear put spread stratejilerini kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bununla birlikte, b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yap\u0131sal bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de\u011fil, indirimli al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, beklentiden daha serin bir enflasyon verisi muhtemelen b\u00fcy\u00fck bir iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 al\u0131m dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na (breakout) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bull call spread stratejileriyle pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, spek\u00fclatif sermayenin yeniden k\u0131ymetli metallere y\u00f6nelmesiyle olu\u015fabilecek ani momentum art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimimiz, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131sal destekle peki\u015fiyor; buna, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 metrik tonu d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde a\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 da dahil. Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131n borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF) yeniden net giri\u015fler e\u011filimine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda; bu da metal i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eahin bir s\u00fcrpriz ralliyi geciktirse bile, bu makroekonomik s\u00fctunlar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamponland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: ABD T\u00dcFE! TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re metal, \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n diren\u00e7li. S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon sat\u0131\u015f getirebilir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck veri ralliyi h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r. Opsiyonlarla volatiliteye haz\u0131rlan; merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131\/ETF giri\u015fleri taban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t