USD\/JPY, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in yen m\u00fcdahalesi konusunda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131namamaya y\u00f6nelik uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, paritenin son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 konsolide etmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde 153 seviyesinin yeniden alt\u0131na geriledi. Piyasalarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir devam hareketi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, kurda bir sonraki kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine uzanan bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma patikas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ABD Hazine tahvilleri satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit eden ayr\u0131 veriler k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir tepki yaratmad\u0131; ancak s\u00f6z konusu rakamlar\u0131n ABD tahvilleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n yen istikrar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n
Fitch Ratings, Japon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yurti\u00e7i tahvillere yeniden tahsisinin ani de\u011fil, kademeli \u015fekilde ilerledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Daha y\u00fcksek JGB getirileri, sigorta \u015firketlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kuponlu portf\u00f6ylerini satmaya ve yeni ihra\u00e7 edilen daha y\u00fcksek kuponlu ka\u011f\u0131tlara yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya itiyor; bu de\u011fi\u015fim, gelecekteki kupon gelirini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve Japon GAAP kapsam\u0131nda sigortal\u0131 temett\u00fclerini destekliyor. Fitch ayr\u0131ca 2026\u20132027\u2019de politika faizlerinin piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini; bunun da yen i\u00e7in ve zaman i\u00e7inde JGB talebi i\u00e7in destekleyici oldu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY kritik 153 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Yen\u2019e haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in piyasalar\u0131 Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131namamalar\u0131 konusunda uyarmas\u0131yla birlikte paritede yukar\u0131 potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu senaryoda, 150\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira politika faizinin 2027\u2019ye giderken %0,75\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Halihaz\u0131rda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,3 ile son on y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde seyrediyor ve bu durum yerel fonlar\u0131 yeniden \u00fclke i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu e\u011filimden, y\u00fckselen getirilerden yararlanmak amac\u0131yla Japon faizleri \u00fczerinde payer swap pozisyonu alarak faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Son sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131 verileri, Japon kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en ay yabanc\u0131 tahvillerde net 1,8 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kademeli geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011fal deste\u011fin azalmas\u0131 ve Yen \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bir al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu sermaye kaymas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce avantajl\u0131 Yen seviyelerini sabitlemek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli FX forward kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidinin g\u00fcndemde kalmas\u0131 ve BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ufukta g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. Spot kur bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131rken prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde olan (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, politika kaynakl\u0131 \u201ctavan\u201d etkisinden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019den \u201cyeni test etmeyin\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 USD\/JPY 153 alt\u0131na indi. Piyasalar BoJ\u2019un uzun s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sinyalini bekliyor. Japon fonlar JGB\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir, opsiyon\/forward stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t