Yen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanarak USD\/JPY paritesini %0,39 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 153,40 seviyesine \u00e7ekti; parite en son 153,37 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Piyasalar\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131yla JPY\u2019ye talep artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131n politika faizini %1\u2019den %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu, Haziran\u2019daki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olacak. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f para birimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon riskleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutarken, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar h\u0131z\u0131n tek seferlik 25 baz puanla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fine ve ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7erebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik alan b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise dikkat, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklentileri \u015fekillendirecek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerine \u00e7evrildi; \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) ve T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %62 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/JPY, 100 periyotluk SMA olan 154,92\u2019nin ve 200 periyotluk SMA olan 157,26\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, RSI (14) 42 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 154,40, 155,29 ve 157,26 olarak izlenirken, destek 152,89 ve 152,27\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 153,40\u2019a do\u011fru gerilerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltme ihtimali, Japon faizlerini 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131yarak yeni temelde Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen para politikas\u0131 dinami\u011finden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, ba\u015faba\u015f seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 100 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalama 154,92 ve 200 periyotluk ortalama 157,26 taraf\u0131ndan belirgin \u015fekilde bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, 154,40 direncinin hemen \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftirilecek kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla k\u0131sa call spread stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Spot fiyat\u0131n 152,89\u2019daki ilk deste\u011fin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 152,27\u2019deki daha derin taban\u0131 hedefleyerek k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem (futures) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in bir sonraki politika karar\u0131 i\u00e7in %62 olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesiyle, yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 kritik volatilite kataliz\u00f6rleri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu enflasyon raporlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131n uzun straddle veya strangle stratejileriyle korunmas\u0131n\u0131; b\u00f6ylece her iki y\u00f6nde de sert ve ani hareketlerden faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, erken opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131 cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fclde faizi %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karma fiyatlamas\u0131yla USD\/JPY 153,40\u2019a indi. G\u00f6zler Fed T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de. Teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; put, call spread ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t