Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7apta daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD referans petrol\u00fc Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (WTI), g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini tersine \u00e7evirerek 92,70 dolarla \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n yeni zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve piyasa yeniden haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 94,87 dolarl\u0131k tepeye yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7eren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc t\u0131rmand\u0131; ABD ve \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirirken, \u0130ran destekli Yemenli Husiler Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131 vurdu; Suudi g\u00fc\u00e7leri de misilleme olarak Yemen\u2019de hedefleri vurdu.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2hta trafik k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131yor. Rotalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: Tankerler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 daha fazla ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Panama Kanal\u0131 ise El Ni\u00f1o kaynakl\u0131 kurakl\u0131k tehdidi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken daha derin k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar olabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Bu arka planda Goldman Sachs, kesinti risklerinin yay\u0131l\u0131p \u015fiddetlenmesi halinde petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolara ula\u015fabilece\u011fi bir senaryoya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, WTI\u2019\u0131n 92,70 dolardaki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi ortamda y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu i\u00e7in pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 94,87 dolarl\u0131k tepe seviyesinin hemen yak\u0131n\u0131nda olunmas\u0131 nedeniyle olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla 100 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fe do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Tarihsel fiyat hareketleri, jeopolitik gerilimlerin Basra K\u00f6rfezi altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde arz risk priminin varil fiyat\u0131na kolayl\u0131kla 15-20 dolar ekleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehdit dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk almadan sekt\u00f6r uzmanlar\u0131nca son d\u00f6nemde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan 120 dolar hedefinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in para-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler, ham petrol volatilitesinin g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada uzun volatilite stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, fiziki piyasadaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisini derin backwardation\u2019a itmesi nedeniyle takvim spread\u2019lerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar, sevkiyatlar\u0131n rota de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi ve kanallardaki darbo\u011fazlar nedeniyle an\u0131nda teslimat\u0131n \u00e7ok de\u011ferli hale gelmesiyle, daha uzun vadeli kontratlara k\u0131yasla primli i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat\u0131 al\u0131p uzun vadeli kontratlar\u0131 satmak, fiziki arz\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bu pozitif roll getirisini yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Normalde k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin akt\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u015fimdi k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkinin ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Son denizcilik verileri, b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fcnl\u00fck tanker trafi\u011finin sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 gibi alternatif rotalar\u0131n ise s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r kurakl\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla bo\u011fu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Herhangi bir ani diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m veya stratejik stok sal\u0131m\u0131 bu jeopolitik primi ge\u00e7ici olarak h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekebilece\u011finden, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle disiplinli kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde alarm zilleri: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi WTI\u2019\u0131 92,70$ ile 3 ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, navlun art\u0131yor. Goldman 120$ senaryosu; opsiyonlar ve backwardation \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t